The Bengals are heading into Week 9 in a very different place than the Falcons, and the contrast was on full display last Sunday.
Cincinnati survived a wild offensive battle with Tennessee, pulling out a 43-36 overtime win to improve to 5-2. Atlanta, meanwhile, came out of a rain-soaked matchup with Tampa Bay on the wrong end of a 16-0 shutout, a game that featured just eight completed passes.
Now the two teams meet in Madrid, Spain, for an International Series game, and the gap between them looks hard to ignore if Joe Burrow keeps playing at the level he’s reached over the last few weeks. Burrow has pushed himself into the MVP conversation, sitting third on the FanDuel odds board at +500 behind Josh Allen (+140) and Brock Purdy (+430). He leads all quarterbacks in passing yards per game at 302.1, while also pacing the league in completion percentage at 73% and passing touchdowns with 20.
If Burrow shows up with that kind of form again, Atlanta is going to have a tough time keeping pace.
The Falcons have had a few eye-catching moments this season, but those performances have probably made them look better than they really are. There are still major issues on both sides of the ball.
Their defense has slipped after a strong opening stretch, and Michael Penix Jr. continues to deal with accuracy problems every week. He currently ranks 32nd out of 35 starting quarterbacks in completion percentage over expected.
Cincinnati, on the other hand, has the look of a legitimate Super Bowl contender. The Bengals rank third in offensive weighted EPA per play and 12th in defensive weighted EPA per play.
Last week’s down defensive showing against Tennessee shouldn’t be mistaken for the norm. The unit isn’t elite, but it doesn’t need to be when the offense is operating at this level.
One area that matters most for Cincinnati’s defense is its run stopping. The Bengals rank sixth in opponent rush success rate, and that lines up with what we’ve already seen from Atlanta. The Falcons have struggled to generate offense against strong run defenses such as Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay, and that’s a warning sign heading into this matchup.
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In Other News...
Falcons Head To Madrid With New Concerns And A Possible Boost
The Falcons are heading into their trip to Madrid still trying to shake off a strange 16-0 loss to Tampa Bay, one that stood out even by the standards of an off day. Atlanta did not allow a completed pass and still came away empty, a reminder that the defense did enough in one area but the offense never found a way to turn the game into anything manageable.
Kevin Stefanski said the injury picture is not getting cleaner before the matchup with Cincinnati, with Samson Ebukam and Zachariah Branch both unavailable because of hamstring issues. There is at least one potential lift on the horizon, though, as James Pearce Jr. is back in the conversation after completing an eight-game suspension, giving Atlanta a possible reinforcement as it tries to steady itself on an international stage. [Read more 🡒]
Falcons Just Got Outplayed In The Exact Way They Wanted To Win
Rainy conditions in Week 8 turned into a ground-game test, and it was Tampa Bay that controlled it. The Buccaneers leaned hard on the run and came away with a 16-0 win, while Atlanta never found the same kind of rhythm on the ground despite having Bijan Robinson in the backfield. It was the sort of game the Falcons usually want to make their own, only this time they were the ones getting pushed around in it.
The matchup carried a little extra edge because Zac Robinson was on the other sideline as Tampa Bays offensive coordinator, facing Atlanta for the first time since leaving. Instead of the Falcons dictating terms with their rushing attack, the Buccaneers were the more effective and more committed team in that phase, which only sharpened the frustration for Atlanta. For a club built to lean on the run, getting outplayed there is the kind of result that lingers. [Read more 🡒]
Falcons Just Got A Huge Pass Rush Boost At The Right Time
The Falcons got a timely lift for a pass rush that could use it, reinstating edge rusher James Pearce Jr. and making him eligible to rejoin the mix for their Week 9 matchup against the Bengals. Pearce led Atlanta in sacks last season, and his return gives the defense a proven edge presence at a point in the schedule when pressure off the corner can change the tone of a game.
To clear the way, Atlanta moved on from defensive lineman Jared Ivey and defensive end Drake Jackson, a reminder that roster churn is part of the cost of getting healthier. The bigger question now is how quickly Pearce can slide back into the rotation and whether the Falcons can turn that added pressure into the kind of disruption they have been looking for all season. [Read more 🡒]