The Buccaneers may be running into the same Zac Robinson issue Falcons fans already know by heart.
Robinson’s time in Atlanta came with plenty of frustration, and the reasons were hard to miss. He was supposed to help develop Michael Penix Jr. and unlock his upside, but instead he often boxed him into the wrong spots. Penix kept lining up out of the pistol instead of under center, and the offense rarely featured play-action, even though that was where Penix looked his best.
That’s part of why Tommy Rees has been such a clear upgrade. Rees has been tailoring the offense to Penix’s strengths, while Robinson, now serving as offensive coordinator in Tampa Bay, has brought some of the same issues with him.
The biggest one is predictability. Robinson has always had a knack for building run concepts - especially now that his scheme has moved beyond wide zone - but the passing game has been rough. That was true with the Falcons, and it’s showing up again with the Bucs, who don’t seem interested in stretching defenses vertically.
Through seven weeks of 2026, according to SumerSports, Tampa Bay ranks seventh in the NFL in EPA per run and 31st in EPA per pass. Some of that stems from starting UDFA Jalon Daniels over Baker Mayfield for three games, but the passing game still hasn’t been much better even with Mayfield back in the lineup.
Robinson also leans hard on the ground game when things get tight. With Atlanta, that often meant feeding Bijan Robinson whenever the offense needed a bailout. There’s nothing strange about that when you have the best running back in the NFL, but the bigger problem was what never followed often enough: using the run to create play-action chances.
Tampa Bay has followed a similar script. The Football Database says the Bucs run the ball the seventh-most in the NFL, and in their 43-13 blowout win over the Panthers in Week 7, they ran it 49 times while Mayfield attempted just 11 passes in his return to the lineup.
That ground-heavy identity can work in spurts, but when the Bucs get pushed into must-throw situations, things unravel. That has played a big role in their struggles in close games this season.
Now Robinson gets another shot at his former team in Week 8, and the Falcons should know exactly what’s coming. As with Raheem Morris last week, revenge will be easier said than done, but this is a matchup Atlanta can prepare for with real familiarity.
The difference is that the Panthers were the NFL’s worst run defense. The Falcons are not.
Atlanta enters the week with the fourth-best run defense, and LaCale London leads the NFL in run-stop win rate. Bucky Irving is a good runner, but he has had his issues against stacked boxes.
For Atlanta, the key is obvious: win at the line of scrimmage, make plays before contact, and force Tampa Bay into uncomfortable situations on early downs. Rookie linebacker Kendal Daniels was an absolute dog in Week 7, and he’s been one of the team’s better run defenders. He’ll need to be active again.
If the Falcons can stack the box and limit the Bucs on first and second down, Tampa Bay will be stuck in third and medium or third and long. That is exactly the kind of scenario Robinson would rather avoid, especially with Mayfield clearly not 100%.
The Falcons know this offense. And more importantly, they’ve already seen the warning signs before. Robinson’s stripes haven’t changed.
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Penix now has nine touchdown passes and just one interception in his stretch as the starter, and the league has taken notice. He was named NFC Offensive Player of the Week after that game, and he also landed 12th in the latest NFL.com quarterback rankings, right in the mix with some of the names Falcons fans know well. For a team still sorting out its long-term picture under center, every week like this makes the question a little more interesting. [Read more 🡒]