Sunday night’s matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and Atlanta Falcons has all the ingredients for a game that comes down to one thing: who makes the key play at quarterback when it matters most.
Both teams have been stingy against the run in different ways, and both offenses want to lean on the ground game. Atlanta has been piling up points lately, and those fireworks have come against defenses that sit in the top 10 in points per game allowed.
Baltimore, meanwhile, comes into Sunday Night Football ranked fifth in offensive scoring. On the other side, the Falcons and Ravens defenses sit in the middle of the pack in points per game allowed, which sets up a primetime game that could stay tight throughout.
One thing that may not show up much is quarterback pressure. The Ravens and Falcons are both in the top 10 in fewest yards allowed per game, but they’re also near the bottom of the league in sacks.
Atlanta ranks 22nd in sacks, while Baltimore is 23rd. With both offenses built around the run, neither defense is expected to overwhelm the quarterback.
That leaves the game to be decided late.
That run-heavy style could make this a quiet night for Derrick Henry by his standards. Atlanta’s defense has been excellent through four weeks, and it has been especially strong against the run.
The Falcons have allowed the fewest rushing yards in the league and are giving up fewer than 50 rushing yards per game. Even with Lamar Jackson dealing with an ankle injury and Baltimore likely leaning on Henry, the prediction here is that Atlanta holds him to 60 rushing yards and no touchdowns.
Atlanta’s answer on the ground is Bijan Robinson, and the Falcons are expected to feed him heavily. He has been the engine of the offense, and the red zone matchup points his way.
Baltimore has allowed the second-most touchdowns to opposing running backs, which opens the door for Robinson to do damage once Atlanta gets inside the 20-yard line. The bold call: Robinson scores two rushing touchdowns.
There’s also a path for tight end Mark Andrews to make the difference for Baltimore. Atlanta has allowed seven receiving touchdowns this season, and three of those have gone to tight ends.
Baltimore ranks 11th in passing yards per game, but it has the second-lowest number of passing touchdowns among the 10 teams with more passing yards per game. With the Falcons having trouble keeping tight ends out of the end zone, Andrews is positioned for a big night.
The final prediction: Baltimore edges Atlanta 17-14, with both Ravens touchdowns coming from Mark Andrews.
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