The Falcons are staring at a 2026 win total that feels low for a team with this much swing in either direction. Their number is set at 6.5, with the OVER priced at -140, which carries a 58.33% implied probability of them finishing 7-10 or better.
That’s a number that asks a lot of questions about what Atlanta actually is right now. Last season, the Falcons had chances to seize control of the NFC South and kept letting them slip away.
They lost to both the Colts and Panthers in overtime in back-to-back weeks, then dropped the Patriots game on a missed extra point. Turn one of those losses into a win, and they would have finished 9-8 and taken the division.
Instead, the season ended without a playoff berth, the postseason drought continued, and the franchise moved on from Raheem Morris. Atlanta then hired former Browns coach Kevin Stefanski and added more to the roster this offseason, including Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback to battle Michael Penix Jr. for the starting job.
That quarterback situation is part of why the Falcons look like one of the most volatile teams in the league. If the quarterback play isn’t there, if the linebackers don’t take a step, and if Stefanski and Tommy Rees can’t build an offense that gets the most out of Bijan Robinson and Drake London, Atlanta could end up near the bottom of the conference. But if those pieces come together, the ceiling looks a lot higher.
The offense has real talent, and the defense found a pass rush last year. Stefanski also brings a track record of lifting rosters beyond what they seem capable of on paper. That’s why the 7.5 alternate win total, with the OVER at plus-money, stands out as the more aggressive play.
In my NFL season betting preview, 32 Bets for 32 Teams, I made the case for taking that route and backing the Falcons to go OVER again. With this kind of range of outcomes, the number feels too light for a team that could either stumble badly or push for the division.
In Other News...
Falcons Sideline Moment Put James Pearce Jr. Back In Spotlight
James Pearce Jr. has spent most of this summer under an unwanted spotlight, and the Falcons pass rusher found himself back in it during a recent preseason game. Even while serving an eight-game suspension beginning Aug. 30 for violating the NFLs Personal Conduct Policy after a February domestic dispute and related felony charges, he remains allowed to take part in preseason practices and games, keeping him around the team while his regular-season future waits in the background.
During the broadcast, Pearce was seen heading into a sideline medical tent with an empty jug and later emerging with it partially filled, a brief and awkward moment that quickly drew attention online. For Atlanta, it was another reminder that one of its most talked-about young defenders is still part of the conversation for reasons that have little to do with football, even as the team tries to move toward the season with the suspension looming. [Read more 🡒]
Jack Strand Is Suddenly Making The Falcons Bet Look Very Real
Jack Strand is giving the Falcons an early return on a decision that looked risky when they passed on drafting a quarterback and instead brought in the undrafted rookie from Minnesota State-Morehead. Working with Kevin Stefanski, Strand has turned a quiet summer into a legitimate conversation, and his preseason progress has started to make Atlantas approach look far more intentional than improvisational.
His most eye-catching moment came against the Colts, when he completed 12 of 17 passes for 215 yards and two touchdowns. It is still early, but Strand has shown enough command and production to make the Falcons feel like they may have found more than just a camp arm, and the next step will be seeing whether that progress keeps holding up once the pressure rises. [Read more 🡒]
Falcons Bubble Players Just Made Final Roster Cuts A Lot Harder
The Falcons 34-6 win over the Colts in their second preseason game did more than pad the scoreboard. It gave several players on the roster bubble a timely chance to stand out, and they took advantage of it with performances that should at least make the front office pause before the final cuts arrive.
Vinny Anthony II, Malcolm DeWalt IV, JD Bertrand, Keshawn Banks and Michael Jerrell all found ways to help their case, whether through steady play or noticeable impact in a game that tilted heavily Atlantas way. For a team still sorting out the back end of the roster and practice squad, those kinds of reps can carry real weight, especially when the evaluation board is getting thinner by the day. [Read more 🡒]