The NFL’s Week 9 international stage sends the Cincinnati Bengals and Atlanta Falcons to Madrid on Sunday, and the setup leans toward Cincinnati handling business.
The Bengals enter at 5-2 after surviving an overtime scare against the Tennessee Titans in Week 8, while the Falcons are coming off a rough rain-soaked loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and sit at 3-5. Atlanta is the designated home team in this matchup, but it still opened as an underdog.
Cincinnati opened as a 3.5-point favorite, and that number has since moved to three. The total has also climbed, rising three points from its opening mark of 49.5.
Joe Burrow and the Bengals are in a strong position in the AFC North, especially with the Baltimore Ravens sliding after Lamar Jackson’s injury. Burrow and Cincinnati are favored to win the division and are inside 20/1 to win the Super Bowl.
Atlanta, meanwhile, has been tough to pin down all season. The Falcons have flashed in spots, including one of the best wins of the year against San Francisco, but they’ve also had stretches where the offense has simply stalled out. Through eight weeks, they are 3-3 when Michael Penix Jr. starts, and their offense ranks 26th in EPA/Play.
Penix has also dealt with accuracy issues on a weekly basis. He ranks 32nd out of 35 starting quarterbacks this season in completion percentage over expected.
The Falcons’ defense has not been as sharp lately, either. After a strong opening stretch, it has regressed, and while it remains a top-10 unit in EPA/Play, it was still unable to slow a Buccaneers team that didn’t complete a pass in Week 8.
Cincinnati’s defense has its own calling card, and that’s stopping the run. The Bengals rank sixth in opponent rush success rate, and Atlanta has already shown problems against strong run defenses like the Steelers and Buccaneers.
That combination is why SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan is backing Cincinnati in his Road to 272 picks for the week. His read is that the Bengals’ offense should have enough room to operate against an Atlanta defense that is solid but not elite, and that Burrow and company can take advantage in Madrid.
With both teams needing a win to stay in the mix in their division races, the edge goes to the Bengals in this standalone Week 9 matchup.
In Other News...
Falcons Pass Rush Hope Suddenly Hinges On James Pearce Jr
The Falcons are getting close to having James Pearce Jr. back in the mix, which matters because their pass rush could use the boost. Pearce is eligible to return after serving an eight-game suspension, and the team has been watching his status as it prepares for the game against the Cincinnati Bengals. With Brian Robinson Jr. already ruled out because of a hamstring injury, Atlantas injury report has only added to the sense that the roster is still trying to settle itself.
Pearces return has been one of the more notable subplots around the Falcons since his absence began, given the circumstances that led to the suspension. The edge rusher was sidelined under the leagues personal conduct policy after legal charges stemming from an incident in February, and now his availability is tied not just to reinstatement but to how his back responds in the final stretch before kickoff. For a defense looking for help up front, the timing is as important as the player himself. [Read more 🡒]
Falcons Suddenly Have A Backfield Problem Before Bengals Showdown
The Falcons are heading into their matchup with the Bengals with another wrinkle in the backfield, as Brian Robinson Jr. has been unavailable for a stretch while dealing with a hamstring injury. His absence has forced Atlanta to keep adjusting on the fly, and the team is preparing to lean on another familiar emergency option as it tries to keep the running game steady.
Khalil Herbert is expected to be elevated from the practice squad again, giving the Falcons a stopgap answer while they wait for more clarity at the position. There is also some uncertainty on the defensive side, where edge rusher James Pearce has been limited in practice and is listed as questionable, adding another layer of concern as Atlanta gets ready for Cincinnati. [Read more 🡒]
Falcons Pass Rush Suddenly Has A Big Problem Before Bengals Game
James Pearce Jr. had been trending toward a return for Atlanta after being reinstated from suspension, giving the Falcons a needed boost off the edge before their matchup with the Bengals. Instead, a minor back injury flared up and left the second-year pass rusher questionable, a late twist that clouds what had looked like a straightforward path back onto the field.
For a defense already navigating injuries, the timing is less than ideal. Samson Ebukam remains on injured reserve, while Billy Bowman Sr. and Divine Deablo could be back this week, so the Falcons may get some help in one area even as they wait on another. Pearce was limited in practice, and the team expects to have a clearer read on his status in the next 24 to 48 hours. [Read more 🡒]