The Atlanta Falcons have already made one thing clear this month: if you’re a cornerstone, they’re willing to pay you like one. Wide receiver Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts Sr. both landed lucrative extensions, and now Bijan Robinson looks next in line.
Multiple reports point to Robinson getting a new deal this summer, even though he still has two years left on his rookie contract. That would be a little earlier than the usual timetable for first-round picks, who often get extensions after their fourth season and before the fifth-year option comes into play. For Atlanta, though, jumping the queue would say plenty about how the team views its All-Pro running back.
And it’s easy to see why. Robinson is only 24, but he already has the kind of production that forces teams to think bigger.
Last season, he led the NFL in scrimmage yards with 2,298 and accounted for 48.2% of the Falcons’ total yards. He’s also been durable through his first three seasons, starting every game but one since arriving in 2023.
That combination of age, production and availability is what makes Robinson such a fascinating contract case. The current top of the running back market belongs to Saquon Barkley of the Philadelphia Eagles at $20.6 million per year and Christian McCaffrey of the San Francisco 49ers at $19 million. Robinson is expected to clear both.
The number most people will notice is the average annual value, and the expectation is that Robinson lands around $25 million per year. But the real issue is guaranteed money. That’s where the market for running backs gets tricky, because second contracts at the position usually don’t come with more than two years of guarantees.
Robinson may be the kind of player who breaks that pattern. McCaffrey, Barkley and Derrick Henry have all bucked the usual aging curve, and Robinson’s age makes the argument even stronger.
A deal such as four years and $100 million with $75 million guaranteed would keep him under contract for the 2027, 2028 and 2029 seasons, and he’d still be just 27 when the guaranteed portion runs out. That would be a record-setting amount of guaranteed money for a running back.
Atlanta also has the financial muscle to make this work. Owner Arthur Blank can help general manager Ian Cunningham navigate the cap with signing bonuses, extensions and void years, the same kind of structure that helped make London’s new four-year, $141 million deal manageable. London got $100 million guaranteed, but his 2026 cap number is only $8 million, according to Over the Cap.
Robinson’s situation is a little different, but the cap math points in the same direction. His fifth-year option is set to carry an $11.3 million cap hit in 2027, though it could end up lower than that. If Atlanta tears up the option and moves on from the franchise-tag conversation altogether, that would tell you exactly how the organization feels about him.
Former general manager Terry Fontenot took heat for using the No. 8 pick on a running back in 2023, but Robinson has answered that call since day one. He’s become the face of the Falcons, and the club’s most important and popular player. In Atlanta, that means one thing: he’s going to get paid.
In Other News...
Falcons Suddenly Face A Brutal Michael Penix Jr. Decision
Training camp questions have a way of exposing every crack in a quarterback plan, and Atlanta is walking into this one with Michael Penix Jr. at the center of it. The former first-rounder has had enough early starts to give the Falcons a feel for what he can and cannot yet do, and the numbers have been solidly middle-of-the-road as he tries to establish himself as the long-term answer under center.
What makes the situation more uncomfortable is the backdrop around him. Penix was not drafted by the current Falcons regime, which always matters when a new staff is trying to stamp its own identity on a roster, and the quarterback battle chatter around the league only adds to the pressure. Atlanta does not need another year of uncertainty at the position, but with a new camp evaluation ahead, Penix is still the player everyone will be watching closest. [Read more 🡒]
Falcons Quarterback Battle Just Took A More Unsettling Turn
Spring practices have already offered the Falcons a glimpse of how this quarterback evaluation could unfold, with Tua Tagovailoa handling all of the first-team 11-on-11 work while Michael Penix Jr. continues his recovery from a torn ACL. Atlanta has spent more on Penix and has every reason to see how he responds once he is cleared for full contact, but for now the team is still collecting information rather than making a declaration.
The next real checkpoint comes when training camp opens July 29 in Flowery Branch, when the reps are expected to be split and the competition should get a lot harder to read. Until then, the Falcons are living with a tricky set of variables: a veteran on a short-term deal, a younger quarterback the organization has invested in more heavily, and a timeline that keeps pushing the answer a little farther down the road. [Read more 🡒]
Falcons Rookie Quarterback Is Making This Roster Battle Very Real
The Falcons quarterback picture has been busy enough already with Michael Penix Jr. and the veteran options around him, but undrafted rookie Jack Strand has given the team something unexpected to think about. Even without Division I experience, Strand has turned heads from the start of minicamp and OTAs, and that kind of early traction tends to matter in a competition where every rep is being watched closely.
What makes Strand worth tracking is not just that he has survived the first wave of evaluations, but that Atlanta seems interested in seeing whether he can grow into more than a camp arm. With Trevor Siemian also in the mix for a roster spot, the Falcons have a decision to make about how much they value immediate experience versus a developmental bet on a quarterback who has already made this battle feel a lot more real. [Read more 🡒]