The Falcons are heading into 2026 with one of the league’s most uncertain outlooks, and that uncertainty is exactly why the NFC South feels wide open.
Atlanta has spent most of its existence in the division’s middle ground. Since the NFC South was created in 2002, the Falcons have finished last only four times - in 2003, 2007, 2020 and 2022.
They’ve also claimed the division just four times, with the most recent crown coming in 2016. That’s the backdrop for a team that looks strong on paper but still has plenty of questions attached to it.
The biggest one is how the new coaching staff will sort through all that talent. Nobody really knows how the pieces will be used, and that makes Atlanta one of the harder teams in the division to pin down.
That’s true in a year when the NFC South has been chaos anyway. Over the last four seasons, the division winners have put together a combined 35-37 record.
Even the usual pecking order has been flipped around. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were viewed as the division’s standard-bearer from 2021 to 2024, but last season the Carolina Panthers won it in a three-way tie.
So when people try to forecast the 2026 standings, there’s no shortage of possibilities. Some projections have the Falcons near the top. Others have them at the bottom.
Bleacher Report’s Moe Moton landed on the pessimistic side, arguing Atlanta could finish last because of its lack of momentum.
"In the NFC South, the Falcons have less momentum than the Carolina Panthers and the New Orleans Saints heading into the 2026 season," Moton wrote "The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have enough talent on both sides of the ball to bounce back from an 8-9 record in the previous year. Atlanta drops to the bottom of the division with five or six wins."
There’s logic behind that view. Atlanta matched Carolina’s record last season, but the Panthers swept the Falcons and took the division. Tampa Bay has already shown it can win the South, and New Orleans is also trending in a direction that has people paying attention.
Still, the Falcons have a real argument too: talent. On paper, they may be the most gifted roster in the division. The problem is that talent alone doesn’t settle anything, and Atlanta has to prove it can turn that into actual results.
Moton also pointed to the quarterback situation, describing it as a group of "two mid-to-low-tier starting quarterbacks."
That’s a fair snapshot of the position as things stand. But it also leaves out the fact that Tua Tagovailoa has already shown he can play at a high level, and Michael Penix Jr. brings first-round ability and an arm that can match anyone in the league.
For the Falcons, 2026 is a chance to make all of the guessing look foolish. If everything comes together, they could finally grab their first division title since that 2016 season.
In Other News...
Falcons Fans May Not Like Where The Penix Situation Is Heading
Michael Penix Jr. was supposed to be the long-term answer when Atlanta used a first-round pick on him in 2024, but the quarterback picture around the Falcons has already grown murkier. With Kevin Stefanski now in charge, the conversation has shifted from development to competition, and Penix is being measured against Tua Tagovailoa in a battle that says as much about the new staffs priorities as it does about either passers talent.
For Falcons fans, the uneasy part is how quickly the runway has shortened. Penixs future in Atlanta is no longer being discussed as a simple wait-and-see project, and the early read from analysts is that Tagovailoas accuracy and extra preparation time could matter a great deal in Stefanskis system. If that holds, the Falcons may be headed toward a quarterback decision that leaves plenty of questions about where Penix fits next. [Read more 🡒]
Falcons Suddenly Have A Tyler Shough Problem They Can't Ignore
Tyler Shoughs first season in New Orleans gave the Falcons a reminder that quarterback development does not always move in a straight line. After taking over for the Saints, Shough helped them win four of their final five games in 2025 and finished with a strong closing stretch that made the rest of the division take notice, especially after he piled up big passing numbers down the stretch and ended up near the top of the rookie awards conversation despite a limited sample.
Now the Saints have tried to make the next step easier, adding more help around him while keeping the core pieces in place. With Kellen Moore running the offense and a deeper group of weapons available, Shough looks set up for a real Year 2 jump, which is exactly the kind of development Atlanta cannot afford to dismiss in a division that already feels tighter than it should. [Read more 🡒]
Falcons May Be Counting On Brandon Dorlus For Something Much Bigger
Brandon Dorlus went from promising piece to real difference-maker for Atlanta in 2025, turning in a breakout season that gave the Falcons a legitimate interior pass-rush threat. Under Jeff Ulbrich, the defense found some welcome continuity, and Dorlus looked like the kind of player whose growth can change how opponents have to protect the quarterback.
ESPN analyst Ben Solak pointed to that rise as something Atlanta can build on, noting that the development should keep moving in a straight line after a season that showed the team a version of Dorlus it had been waiting to see. With the Falcons already seeing how effective he can be in pass-rush situations, the bigger question now is how far his role can grow as the front continues to evolve around him. [Read more 🡒]