The Falcons get a chance to reset Sunday, and the Falcons On SI staff sees them taking advantage of it.
Atlanta is coming off a painful overtime loss to the Ravens, but the matchup with the Bears offers a clean test of what needs to change: shore up the run defense, protect the quarterback, and finally get a win at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The pick across the board is Atlanta, with the staff unanimous in backing the Falcons.
The biggest issue on the defensive side is simple. Chicago brings the NFL’s No. 1 rushing offense into town, and the Falcons have to deal with D’Andre Swift leading that charge.
There is a break in Atlanta’s favor, though, with Kyle Monangai ruled out for a second straight game because of turf toe and a thumb injury. The formula for the Falcons is straightforward: slow the run, then make Caleb Williams work after returning from injury.
Williams’ availability is one of the key variables in the game, along with Michael Penix Jr.’s health. Penix is dealing with ribs, while Williams is working through a hamstring issue, but both are expected to play. How effective they are could shape everything that follows.
When Penix stays clean, he has been one of the better quarterbacks in the league this season, and the Bears have not done much to threaten opposing passers. Chicago is also missing edge rusher Montez Sweat, which only adds to the case for Atlanta’s offense to find room. Bijan Robinson is expected to remain a major part of the plan, and Drake London is also projected to be in line for another big outing, especially with Chicago’s top corner, Jaylon Johnson, off to a rough start.
There is still concern for Atlanta on the ground. The Bears may be missing pieces, but their rushing attack has already shown it can pile up points, including 59 in Week 1, and their offense has had its share of explosive moments despite the injuries. That means the Falcons’ front has to answer the same test it faced last week against Baltimore, only this time with a different look.
The staff’s view is that Atlanta does enough on both sides to come away with its first home victory and move to 3-3. Some expect a stronger defensive showing, some point to Penix’s comfort when unpressured, and some believe Jeff Ulbrich’s group will make the stops when it matters. One forecast also notes that Caleb Williams could still land a big day on broken plays.
The game is set for 1 p.m. at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on FOX.
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