The Atlanta Falcons are staring at another uncertain season under center, and one national projection is not buying the optimism.
Josh Kendall of The Athletic pegged Atlanta for 7.1 wins in 2026, then delivered a blunt assessment of that number: “Projected wins: 7.1. Verdict: Too high,” Kendall writes. “It's been a tough summer for the Falcons.”
That skepticism starts with the quarterback situation, where the Falcons are navigating uncertainty between Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa. Penix is still working back from his injury, while Tagovailoa has struggled in joint practices and throughout the preseason. Jake Strand has been the best-looking quarterback in the mix so far, but he is not expected to be the starter this season and may not even make the 53-man roster.
The problems don’t stop there. Atlanta’s two first-round edge rushers from the 2025 NFL Draft are both expected to miss significant time. Jalon Walker is out for the year with a season-ending ACL tear, and James Pearce Jr. is serving an eight-game suspension from the NFL.
There is still plenty of talent on the roster. Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts are all players worth getting excited about, and all three signed long-term deals with the franchise this offseason. But even that group needs a quarterback who can consistently move the ball down the field.
That’s the heart of Kendall’s low opinion of the Falcons’ projection. Tagovailoa hasn’t looked like the answer, Penix is coming off another major injury, and the defense may have to carry more than it should because of injuries and the need to keep games low-scoring for a weaker offense.
So while a 7.1-win forecast might not sound disastrous on paper, Kendall sees it as overly generous. The Falcons may have star power, but the quarterback doubts are loud enough to drag the whole outlook down.
For now, Atlanta is stuck with this setup in 2026. And if the Falcons somehow get to 7.1 wins, it would count as a surprise from Kendall’s perspective.
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Michael Penix Jr. Just Raised The Heat In Falcons QB Battle
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The bigger takeaway was how often Penix worked with the first team, a sign the battle around Atlantas quarterback room is beginning to tilt in his direction. Tua Tagovailoa was on the field in the same session, but he struggled while Penix handled more of the premium reps, adding a layer of pressure to a situation the Falcons will keep watching closely as camp moves on. [Read more 🡒]