The Atlanta Falcons’ season outlook is already wrapped in uncertainty, and this prediction has them finishing right on the edge of relevance: 8-8.
A shaky quarterback situation hangs over everything. Fans and media are already uneasy about how the early stretch will look, and the season is framed as depending on when Michael Penix Jr. can return from injury. Tua Tagovailoa’s preseason was described as rough because of ugly fumbles and a heavy diet of short passes, and the concern is that things won’t get any easier against opponents’ top units.
That makes the opener at Pittsburgh a tough place to start. The Falcons are projected to lose 20-10 in Week 1, with several matchup problems highlighted, especially Tagovailoa against the Steelers defense, Jawaan Taylor against T.J.
Watt, and the interior line against Cam Heyward. The Taylor-Watt battle is singled out as the most worrying one, and Kevin Stefanski is said to need a strong game plan just to put points on the board.
Atlanta is then expected to get its first win in Week 2 at home against Carolina, 24-20, using the home opener and a divisional matchup to build some early momentum. But the climb gets steep again quickly with a 27-20 loss at Green Bay in Week 3, where the Packers are viewed as the better team and the road environment is described as one of the toughest.
The Falcons are predicted to rebound in Week 4 at New Orleans, sneaking out a 31-30 win in a game tied to the anniversary of the return to the Superdome. That one is expected to come with extra energy in the building, but Atlanta is still forecast to pull it out as an underdog.
Week 5 brings one of the more surprising calls of the slate: a 20-17 win over Baltimore. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are the obvious threat, but Harold Perkins Jr. is pegged as the difference-maker because of his speed and his ability to chase down athletic quarterbacks. The Falcons’ defensive line is also credited with being better suited to stop the run.
The next two weeks go the other way. Chicago is picked to win 30-20 in Week 6, with takeaways from the Bears seen as the key factor and the Falcons’ quarterback uncertainty again looming large.
Then comes a brutal 17-14 loss to San Francisco in Week 7, a stretch described as the part of the schedule that could really sink the season. Jeff Ulbrich’s work against Kyle Shanahan last year is part of the reason this one is expected to stay low-scoring, and there’s also a question hanging over what Raheem Morris’ defense will do against his former team.
Atlanta gets back on track in Week 8 at Tampa Bay, where the Falcons are projected to win 34-24 and keep rolling against Todd Bowles’ defense. Kyle Pitts is specifically mentioned as a player with this one circled, and the victory would push Atlanta to 3-0 in the division.
The middle of the schedule gets ugly again. A 35-24 loss to Cincinnati in Madrid is next, with Joe Burrow and the Bengals viewed as too much despite the Falcons having a secondary that can at least challenge the receivers. A Week 10 matchup with Kansas City also ends in defeat, 25-20, as Patrick Mahomes is expected to be fully rolling by then and Andy Reid’s track record is considered too hard to overcome.
After the bye, the Falcons are projected to find some relief in Minnesota. A 31-20 win over the Vikings is penciled in for Week 12, with last year’s shut down of Kevin O’Connell’s offense carrying some weight in the prediction, even if Minnesota has an upgrade at quarterback.
But the next two are losses again. Detroit is picked to win 30-20 in Week 13, with the Lions’ offense and defense both expected to be too strong. Then Atlanta is forecast to beat Cleveland 28-15 in Week 14, in a game where Stefanski’s energy against his former team is expected to be a major factor.
The Falcons also edge Washington 27-24 in Week 15, with Penix Jr. having come close to beating Jayden Daniels in their last meeting and Perkins Jr. again projected to play a big role against a former LSU teammate. But the final two weeks split the difference: a 30-24 home loss to Tampa Bay in Week 16, then a 20-14 win over New Orleans in Week 17 after the Falcons swept the Saints last year in two tight games.
That leaves everything to Week 18, and the prediction ends with a 30-28 loss at Carolina. Atlanta has lost four of its last five against the Panthers, including two ugly overtime defeats, and even a .500 record isn’t enough to make the finale feel harmless. The game is framed as one that could decide the division, and the Falcons are left with another frustrating finish.
In Other News...
Falcons Suddenly Have A Tua Concern They Cant Ignore
A brief scare at practice put Tua Tagovailoa back in the spotlight for the Falcons on Wednesday, as the newly named starter appeared to feel discomfort and went to the ground during the session. The issue seemed tied to the back trouble he dealt with earlier in training camp, and he did not throw again during the media portion of practice.
For Atlanta, the timing is what makes it worth watching. Tagovailoa only recently won the starting job, with Cooper Rush and rookie Jack Strand behind him on the depth chart, so any interruption in his workload immediately raises the stakes for a team trying to settle its quarterback picture. His status is expected to be clarified in the next injury report, but for now the Falcons are left waiting to see how serious this latest concern might be. [Read more 🡒]
Falcons Week 1 Plan Suddenly Rests On A New Quarterback Decision
Cooper Rush did not arrive in Atlanta long ago, but he is already in the middle of the Falcons most important early-season conversation. Signed in late July, Rush took first-team reps in practice after Tua Tagovailoa was slowed by an oblique injury, a development that immediately put the quarterback picture for Week 1 into focus. With a new offense being installed under coordinator Tommy Rees, every snap matters even more as the Falcons try to get the operation steady before facing the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Rush has been part of that process in a way the coaching staff clearly values, drawing praise for his consistency and communication during practice. If Tagovailoa cannot go, Rush is prepared to handle the opening assignment, which would turn a late-summer roster move into a far bigger early-season responsibility. For a team trying to settle into a new system, the next few practices will say plenty about how quickly the Falcons can get comfortable under center. [Read more 🡒]
Falcons Opener Just Got A Big Joey Porter Jr. Wrinkle
The Falcons Week 1 prep has picked up an extra layer of uncertainty with Joey Porter Jr. still working his way back from a back issue. Pittsburgh coach Mike McCarthy would not say whether the cornerback needs to complete a full practice before being cleared for the matchup in Atlanta, and Porter has only been able to work in a limited capacity while he remains in a ramp-up stage.
There is also the longer-term backdrop of Porters contract situation, which remains open with the Steelers but is not close to being resolved. Pittsburgh has a policy of not negotiating extensions once the regular season starts, so the focus for now is on how quickly Porter can build up to game readiness before the opener, even if the timetable is still not fully clear. [Read more 🡒]