The Falcons are walking into Week 10 with a familiar problem: another elite quarterback, another offense that can punish mistakes, and another chance to get exposed if they don’t bring their best. This time it’s Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, and even with the injury he picked up in Week 9, Atlanta can’t treat this like anything less than a major test.
Mahomes took a scary shot to his throwing elbow against the New York Jets when rookie David Bailey slammed into him to force a fumble shortly before halftime. The broadcast showed his arm dangling, but he never left the field for an offensive snap.
Ian Rapoport referred to the injury as an elbow strain/sprain, and both Mahomes and Andy Reid said on Wednesday they expected him to practice in full. He did exactly that.
That’s the part Atlanta has to respect. Mahomes has built a reputation for playing through pain, and even if this is really about soreness and pain management, his presence alone changes the matchup. After Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase carved up the Falcons’ defense in Madrid, there’s no room for anyone in that building to assume a banged-up Mahomes is somehow a softer target.
Kansas City’s Week 9 win over the Jets showed just how dangerous this offense still is. The Chiefs rolled 35-13 behind 102 rushing yards and three total touchdowns from Kenneth Walker III, plus a strong day from Travis Kelce, who caught four passes for 72 yards and added a rushing touchdown.
Walker is the other major problem Atlanta has to deal with. He’s the only running back in the NFL with more rushing yards than Bijan Robinson this season, and he has become a true feature back for Kansas City.
According to Stat Rankings, Walker III is tied with Jahmyr Gibbs for the league lead in missed tackles forced with 57. He’s elusive, slippery, and hard to bring down, and the Chiefs can lean on him to take pressure off the passing game if Mahomes isn’t at full strength.
That matters because Kansas City doesn’t need to live on deep shots to hurt you anymore. The Chiefs are not asking Mahomes to test defenses downfield the way they did when Tyreek Hill was there. Rashee Rice gives them a YAC threat, Kelce is still a dependable outlet, and Josh Downs arrived from the Indianapolis Colts at the trade deadline to give Mahomes another short-game option.
If Mahomes is dealing with pain, the plan is obvious: get the ball out fast and let playmakers work after the catch. That’s where Atlanta’s tackling issues become a problem. Whether it’s Rice, Walker, Kelce, or Downs, Kansas City has enough talent to keep moving even if its quarterback isn’t at full speed.
For Jeff Ulbrich, the cleanest path is pressure, especially off the edge. The issue is that Atlanta’s pass rush hasn’t been consistently winning that way.
James Pearce Jr. is still ramping up after his eight-game suspension, Cameron Thomas has faded, and Samson Ebukam is on IR. Za’Darius Smith, at 34, has been the most productive edge rusher on the roster, while Gervon Dexter and Brandon Dorlus have carried much of the load inside.
The numbers underline the concern. The Falcons have posted an 18.5% pressure rate over their last three games, which ranks third-worst in the NFL over that stretch. If they can’t make Mahomes uncomfortable, the Chiefs are likely to keep marching.
Atlanta’s offense has to hold up its end too. Michael Penix Jr. and company are facing a Kansas City defense that is part of one of the league’s most productive offenses, and the Falcons haven’t been as sharp lately. After averaging 31 points per game through Penix’s first five starts, the offense has stalled in the blowout loss in Tampa and the defeat in Madrid.
Penix has thrown five interceptions over the last two games after throwing just one in his first five starts, and that one came on his opening drive in Green Bay. The run game has been uneven, and after a stretch that made him look like a franchise quarterback, his long-term future is once again in real doubt.
There is at least a path for Atlanta through the air. The Chiefs are thin at cornerback, with Mansoor Delane expected back this week and L’Jarius Sneed dealing with injuries. That should create chances for Drake London and Jahan Dotson if Penix can find them.
So the formula is simple, even if the execution won’t be. Atlanta needs to make Mahomes feel that elbow, keep Walker from taking over, and get enough from Penix to stay in the fight. Otherwise, the Chiefs will do what they usually do: keep the pressure on and keep the scoreboard moving.
In Other News...
Chiefs Bring Kicker Drama Into Falcons Game With Bigger Question Looming
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Andy Reid is keeping Butker in the lineup for now, even as the Chiefs have added Justin Tucker to the practice squad and left the door open to a possible shakeup later. For the Falcons, it is the kind of subplot worth watching from afar, because a team that has been steady enough to keep its footing in the standings could still end up facing a very different kicking picture before long. [Read more 🡒]
Falcons Just Drew A Hard Line In Their Rebuild
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One of those boundaries was Bijan Robinson. The Giants reportedly checked in on the running back, but Atlanta never seriously entertained the idea of moving him, a sign of how firmly the team views him as part of its long-term core. For a franchise trying to build around young talent, keeping Robinson out of the deadline churn says plenty about where the Falcons believe their foundation already is. [Read more 🡒]
Falcons Just Opened A Huge Opportunity For DeMarcco Hellams
Jessie Bates IIIs move to Jacksonville leaves a clear opening in the Falcons secondary, and it puts DeMarcco Hellams in the spotlight at a time when Atlanta is looking hard at its younger defensive backs. With the veteran safety gone, the coaching staff has already pointed to Hellams as the next man expected to step in, giving the former rookie a chance to turn a limited role into something much bigger down the stretch.
For Hellams, the timing matters. He is in the final year of his rookie contract and has seen only limited defensive work this season, but the vacancy at safety changes the conversation around his place on the roster. Atlanta now has a real reason to see what it has in him, and the next stretch of games could go a long way toward showing whether he can handle a larger defensive workload. [Read more 🡒]