The Atlanta Falcons are staring at a familiar NFL trap: having a special running back and not doing enough with him.
Bijan Robinson has already become the kind of offensive centerpiece teams dream about, but Atlanta’s results with him have been stuck in neutral. Across three seasons with Bijan leading the way, the Falcons have gone 7-10 in 2023, 8-9 in 2024 and 2025, and the playoff drought still hasn’t ended. That leaves them with a 23-28 record over that stretch, despite arguably having the NFL’s best offensive weapon in the building.
That’s why the looming extension matters so much. Right now, there doesn’t seem to be much doubt that Atlanta will sign Robinson to a market-altering deal before the summer is over. But once that happens, the pressure shifts even more heavily onto the new regime, because the league has seen this story before - and it usually doesn’t end well for the team.
The list of elite backs who spent prime years on losing teams is a long one. Adrian Peterson, Saquon Barkley, Barry Sanders and Walter Payton all lived through versions of the same frustration Robinson is facing now. Each had moments of team success, but not nearly enough to match the level of talent they brought every week.
Barry Sanders is the clearest warning sign. Detroit had the best running back of all time for 10 seasons, but the Lions reached the playoffs only five times in that span. They got past the Wild Card Round just once, and after a 5-11 finish in 1998, Sanders walked away from the game at 29.
Peterson’s run in Minnesota followed a similar pattern. From 2007 to 2016, he immediately established himself as one of the NFL’s top rushers and even topped 2,000 yards in an MVP season. Still, the Vikings made the playoffs only four times in those 10 years, with quarterback instability constantly getting in the way.
Saquon Barkley’s path offers another cautionary tale for Atlanta. The current highest-paid running back in NFL history spent six seasons with the Giants after going second overall in the 2018 NFL Draft, and New York’s only playoff trip with him came after a 9-7-1 season in 2022. Then, in the 2023 offseason, he joined the Eagles and won a Super Bowl in his first year there.
Walter Payton is the exception, and even that took time. He’s the only one of that group to win a Super Bowl with the team that drafted him, but Chicago didn’t get there quickly. The Bears were dominant late in his career, including the 1985 Super Bowl run, yet they reached the playoffs only twice in his first nine seasons.
For Atlanta, the message is plain. In today’s NFL, a running back like Robinson can shape an entire offense. He has already been forced to deal with quarterback instability more than anyone over the last three years, and losing never gets easier no matter how electric the player is.
The Falcons are never going to seriously entertain moving a talent like Robinson, especially when he draws fans through the gate. But they also can’t afford to keep drifting in the middle. Once the extension is done, Atlanta has to make sure its generational back gets to the playoffs before the window starts to close.
In Other News...
NFL Voice Just Validated What Falcons Fans Hoped About Xavier Watts
Xavier Watts gave the Falcons exactly the kind of early return teams hope for when they use a premium pick on the secondary. After earning a starting role, the safety quickly looked like more than just a developmental piece, and his ball production stood out in a rookie class that included plenty of defensive talent. For a team that has spent years trying to stabilize the back end, Watts emergence offered a real sign that the draft could still be a path to building something lasting.
Watts also fits neatly next to Jessie Bates III, which is part of why Atlantas secondary suddenly feels more interesting than it did a year ago. The Falcons added Avieon Terrell in the 2026 draft as another young defensive back who could push for snaps, so there is still competition ahead and more to sort out in that room. Even with Terry Fontenot no longer running the front office, the early signs on Watts are hard to ignore, and they leave Atlanta with at least one foundational piece worth watching closely. [Read more 🡒]
Falcons Fans Have A New NFC South Problem To Worry About
The Panthers found a real difference-maker in Tetairoa McMillan, and the Falcons got an early look at just how quickly he can tilt a game. Drafted eighth overall in 2025, McMillan wasted little time validating the pick, finishing his rookie season with 70 catches, 1,014 yards and seven touchdowns while earning NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honors.
For Atlanta, the bigger concern is that McMillan already looks like the kind of young receiver who can become a division problem for years. Carolina has reason to believe his best football is still ahead of him, which means the Falcons may be dealing with more than one difficult matchup every season if his development keeps moving in the same direction. [Read more 🡒]
Outside Ranking Just Put Falcons Young Core Under A Harsh Spotlight
ESPNs Bill Barnwell took a hard look at the Falcons roster through a trade-value lens, and the exercise offered a revealing snapshot of how the league might view Atlantas young core. Bijan Robinson and Drake London came out as the clubs most valuable pieces in that framework, while Jalon Walker landed in the next tier and several other familiar names were close enough to keep the conversation going.
The more interesting part for Atlanta is how thin the margin can be between premium value and just missing it. Barnwell pointed to Chris Lindstrom and Michael Penix as examples of players whose cases come with clear caveats, but the list also included Kyle Pitts, James Pearce and A.J. Terrell, leaving the Falcons with a few notable names hovering near that first-round line and a couple of unanswered questions about why they fell just short. [Read more 🡒]