The Atlanta Falcons have gone from curiosity to something a lot more dangerous in a hurry.
Heading into Week 5 of the 2026 NFL season, the case is no longer about whether they’ve looked good in a small sample. It’s about whether the market is catching up fast enough. If Atlanta puts together another strong showing on Sunday Night Football against the Baltimore Ravens, the price on this team is going to move in a major way.
That’s why this feels like the last clean window to get in before the numbers tighten.
The biggest reason for the surge is Michael Penix Jr. Since his return, Atlanta’s offense has been on a tear.
Over the last two weeks, the Falcons have led the entire NFL in EPA per play, and the gap has been massive. They’ve also been first in success rate during that stretch at 61.8%, which is 7.4% better than any other team.
And even before Penix Jr. became the starter, the signs were there. Through the full season, Atlanta has just four three-and-outs, the fewest in the NFL. The offensive line has also been excellent, and the team has been winning up front on both sides of the ball.
That foundation matters because the Falcons have real difference-makers at the skill spots. Bijan Robinson and Drake London give them two of the best weapons in the league, and Penix Jr. has made the most of them.
Over the past two weeks, he ranks second in adjusted EPA per play and seventh in completion percentage over expected. For a player in his third season, that’s a strong place to start.
The defense has been just as impressive, even while missing key pieces like Jalon Walker, James Pearce Jr., and A.J. Terrell. Through four weeks, Atlanta ranks eighth in opponent EPA per play, third in opponent success rate, first in opponent rush EPA, and second in opponent rush success rate.
The run defense, in particular, has been suffocating. The Falcons have allowed 193 rushing yards, 2.7 yards per carry, zero runs of 20 or more yards, and 15 rushing first downs.
Every one of those marks sits at No. 1.
Their pressure numbers are popping too. Atlanta leads the NFL in “Havoc” rate, which measures how often a defense records a pressure, tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
That’s happening without its top two pass-rushers from a season ago, and Pearce Jr. is still set to return after serving his eight-game suspension. He led the team with 10.5 sacks in 2025.
One long-shot angle that stands out is Harold Perkins Jr. for Defensive Rookie of the Year. The Falcons’ sixth-round pick has wildly different prices depending on the book, ranging from 50-1 at DraftKings to 250-1 at BetMGM.
He barely played in the first two weeks, but over the last two he has taken off. On Monday night against the Saints, he posted 10 total tackles, half a sack, and a pass deflection.
He’s also been the highest-rated rookie linebacker on PFF.com.
Then there’s the coaching side of it. Kevin Stefanski, a two-time Coach of the Year, is guiding what looks like the most talented roster he has ever had. After two Cooper Rush starts, he got the Falcons back on track, and now they’re playing like a team that belongs in the league’s top tier.
Maybe it’s all a little too neat after two strong wins against average opponents. But if Atlanta keeps this up, anyone waiting around may end up paying a much higher price later.
In Other News...
Falcons-Ravens Suddenly Feels Very Different After Lamar Jackson Update
What sounded like a short-term concern for Lamar Jackson has quickly turned into something much more uncertain for the Ravens. Baltimore head coach Jesse Minter initially downplayed the left ankle injury, indicating Jackson would not be expected to miss multiple games, but the latest word has changed the outlook around Sundays matchup with Atlanta and how the rest of the schedule might unfold.
Ian Rapoport reported that Jackson now has only an outside chance to play against the Falcons, with Tyler Huntley the likely starter if Baltimore chooses to hold him out. For Atlanta, that kind of shift matters because it changes the kind of offense the Falcons may be preparing for, and it also leaves open the possibility that Jackson could sit beyond this week, including in a possible game against the Browns. [Read more 🡒]
Michael Penix Jr. Is Changing What Falcons Fans Expect
Michael Penix Jr. has given the Falcons a different kind of energy since returning from a torn ACL, and the offense has started to reflect it. Atlantas 45-24 win over the Saints was the latest sign of that shift, with teammates openly praising the way Penix has settled in and lifted the group around him.
The numbers back up the feeling, too. Penix has completed 33 of 45 passes for 479 yards with two touchdowns and one interception this season, and Atlanta has piled up 80 points over its last two games. For a team that has spent years searching for a steadier offensive identity, winning by more than 20 points in consecutive games for the first time since 2016 is the kind of stretch that changes expectations fast. [Read more 🡒]
Falcons Could Catch Ravens In A Spot They Did Not Expect
The Week 5 matchup with Baltimore suddenly looks more intriguing for Atlanta than anyone expected when the schedule came out. The Ravens are dealing with uncertainty around Lamar Jacksons ankle, and that has the potential to change the shape of the game plan on the fly. For the Falcons, it adds another layer to a trip that already comes with plenty of intrigue, especially with the way their offense has been humming around Bijan Robinson and Michael Penix Jr.
Atlanta has leaned into a balanced approach lately, and that identity could matter even more if Baltimore is forced to adjust. The Falcons do not need this game to become a shootout to feel good about their chances, but they do need to keep doing the things that have made them effective on offense. If the Ravens are missing their biggest difference-maker under center, it is the kind of opening Atlanta has to be ready to press. [Read more 🡒]