The Falcons are walking into 2026 with the kind of profile that can go one of two very different ways: division champs in the NFC South, or stuck at the bottom. Year 1 of the Kevin Stefanski era leaves plenty of room for both outcomes, and that uncertainty is exactly what makes Atlanta such a fascinating team right now.
What’s already clear is that plenty of people are leaning toward the pessimistic side. Bleacher Report’s Moe Moton projected the Falcons to finish last in the NFC South, pointing to the quarterback situation as the biggest reason for that call. He wrote, "The Atlanta Falcons have finished slightly below .500 with seven or eight wins every season since 2021," and added, "While two-time Coach of the Year Kevin Stefanski brings experience and credibility, he can only do so much with two mid-to-low-tier starting quarterbacks."
That kind of outlook is part of what makes Atlanta an easy team to circle as an underdog. The Falcons have already been pushed into the background despite a roster that still has plenty to work with.
They went 8-9 last season, and a pile of one-score losses was tied to poor coaching in clutch moments. Even with that, the offseason didn’t bring the kind of splashy moves that usually force people to pay attention, largely because of cap limitations and the fact that Atlanta did not have a first-round pick.
Still, the setup around the quarterback position is better than the outside noise suggests. Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa are expected to battle for the job, and whoever wins will have a stronger offensive line in front of him and a loaded group of targets around him. That group includes Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Jahan Dotson, and rookie Zachariah Branch.
There’s also a reminder here that both quarterbacks come with real pedigree. Penix was a top-10 pick two years ago, while Tagovailoa was playing at a Pro Bowl level before last season. With that kind of support, the Falcons are set up to make life easier on whoever ends up running the offense.
The defense gives Atlanta another reason not to be dismissed. The unit set a franchise record with 57 sacks last season. Kaden Elliss and David Onyemata are gone, but the Falcons added Sydney Brown, Maason Smith, Avieon Terrell, and Christian Harris to help Jeff Ulbrich’s group get younger and more athletic across the formation.
The division itself only adds to the intrigue. The NFC South ended in a three-way tie last season, and Atlanta’s final three games in 2026 are all against division opponents. That means the Falcons will have every chance to shape their own fate late in the year, even if Moton believes the rest of the division has more reasons for optimism.
The skepticism around Atlanta is loud, but the numbers behind that skepticism are a little hard to swallow. Moton’s projection has the Falcons landing at five or six wins, which would snap a run that has seen them avoid fewer than seven wins every season since 2020. Since 2015, they’ve had only one season with fewer than seven wins.
That’s why the underdog label fits so cleanly here. The Falcons may not be getting much respect, but they’ve got enough talent, enough defensive punch, and enough division opportunities to make the pessimists look foolish.
In Other News...
Falcons Just Got Linked To A Receiver Trade Fans Will Debate
With Drake London and Kyle Pitts now locked in on new extensions, Atlanta has some financial flexibility to keep shaping the offense, and wide receiver depth is one area that could still use attention. Bleacher Report floated the Falcons as a possible trade team to watch, pointing to the idea that the front office may not be done adding help for the passing game as it looks ahead to the 2026 season.
The appeal is easy to see from Atlantas side: there is room to make a move, and there are still questions about how much reliable production the receiver room can provide beyond the top options. The suggested target is a young pass catcher who flashed with a career-high 503 receiving yards in 2024, even if his situation in Denver never fully settled, which is exactly the kind of profile that can spark debate about whether a trade would be worth the cost. [Read more 🡒]
Falcons Created A Defensive Problem Fans May Regret All Season
Kaden Elliss is gone, and with him goes one of the more important stabilizers Atlanta had on defense. The Falcons are now left trying to sort through a linebacker room that looks thinner and less proven than it did a month ago, which is a problem because Elliss was doing far more than just filling a spot. He helped hold the group together, and his departure leaves a noticeable hole in both leadership and production.
For Atlanta, the concern is less about finding a body and more about finding someone who can actually do the job Elliss was doing. The current options bring different skill sets, but the Falcons are still searching for the kind of presence that can keep the defense organized and competitive over the course of a season. After finishing near the bottom of the league against the run, losing a player like Elliss only adds another layer of uncertainty to a unit that already had plenty. [Read more 🡒]
Tyler Allgeier May Be Stuck In The Same Spot Again
Tyler Allgeiers move to Arizona was supposed to give him a fresh start after leaving Atlanta on a two-year, $12 million deal, but the early picture looks a lot like the one he was trying to escape. The Cardinals have packed their backfield with multiple options, and even before a snap is played, the workload appears anything but clear.
Bleacher Reports Moe Moton went so far as to tab Allgeier as Arizonas biggest bust for 2026, a label rooted less in anything Allgeier has done than in the crowded setup around him. If the Cardinals spend much of the year chasing games with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback, the kind of steady run volume Allgeier needs could be hard to find, leaving him fighting for touches in a room that already feels tight. [Read more 🡒]