The SEC Championship Game is once again serving up a heavyweight bout that’s become all too familiar-and all too compelling. For the third time since 2018, Alabama and Georgia are set to square off with the conference crown on the line. And if history is any indication, we’re in for another tightly contested showdown.
This will mark the ninth meeting between the Crimson Tide and the Bulldogs since 2018, a stretch that’s been heavily tilted in Alabama’s favor. Nick Saban's squad holds a commanding 7-1 edge in that span, including several heartbreakers for Georgia fans. But this time, the numbers suggest a shift might be coming.
According to ESPN’s Bill Connelly and his SP+ model-a predictive metric that blends efficiency, explosiveness, and opponent-adjusted performance-Georgia is projected to finally flip the script. The model has the Bulldogs edging out the Tide, 27-24, a poetic reversal of their last meeting in Atlanta, which Alabama won by that exact score.
Now, it’s important to note that while SP+ is rooted in analytics, it doesn’t account for emotion, momentum, or the kind of intangible edge that often defines games of this magnitude. Still, the projection lines up with recent trends: the last three meetings between these two have all been decided by one possession. Alabama won all three, but none came easy.
Kirby Smart’s group has been chasing Alabama’s shadow for years. They finally broke through in the national title game a few seasons back, but in SEC Championship settings, the Tide have remained a thorn in their side. If Georgia is going to take that next step and solidify its dominance in the post-Saban SEC landscape, this weekend is the moment to do it.
Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET in Atlanta, with ABC carrying the broadcast. Expect a game filled with elite talent on both sides of the ball, high-stakes chess matches between coaching staffs, and a playoff berth likely hanging in the balance.
Elsewhere, Connelly’s SP+ projections for Championship Weekend paint a picture of more close calls and a few decisive statements. Here’s how the model sees things shaking out:
- Ohio State 26, Indiana 25 - A razor-thin margin, suggesting the Buckeyes might be in for a tougher fight than expected.
- Texas Tech 33, BYU 21 - A comfortable win for the Red Raiders, who seem to be peaking at the right time.
- UVA 33, Duke 25 - An intriguing ACC clash that could come down to who controls the tempo.
- North Texas 37, Tulane 29 - A shootout in the making, with North Texas’ offense getting the edge.
- James Madison 37, Troy 17 - A dominant showing predicted for JMU, who’ve looked like a program on the rise.
- UNLV 30.4, Boise State 30.0 - Yes, you read that right.
A decimal-point difference in what could be the weekend’s wildest finish.
- Kennesaw State 31, Jacksonville State 30 - Another nail-biter, with Kennesaw State squeaking by.
- Miami (OH) 24, Western Michigan 23 - Yet another one-point thriller in the MAC.
It’s a weekend loaded with drama, and the SEC Championship is the main event. Georgia’s looking to settle a score.
Alabama’s trying to remind everyone they’re still the standard. And if the analytics are right, we’re in for another classic.