NFC South Showdown: Buccaneers Slip, Panthers Take Control as Division Race Tightens
With just four weeks left in the 2025 NFL regular season, the NFC South is shaping up to be one of the most tightly contested divisions in football - even if it’s not the prettiest. The Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints are officially out of the playoff picture, leaving the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers to battle it out for the division crown. And after Thursday night’s wild finish, the scales have tipped - at least for now.
Buccaneers Fall Late to Falcons, Lose Grip on Division Lead
Tampa Bay had a golden opportunity to take control of the NFC South under the primetime lights of Thursday Night Football. Instead, they walked off the field stunned.
The Bucs were trailing by a point at halftime but managed to build a two-touchdown lead in the second half. It looked like they were on their way to a crucial road win.
But Atlanta, despite being eliminated from postseason contention, refused to go quietly. The Falcons clawed their way back and sealed the upset with a walk-off field goal - a gut-punch loss for Tampa Bay that could have major playoff implications.
Now sitting at 7-7, the Buccaneers are no longer in control of their own destiny. That’s a tough pill to swallow this late in the season, especially after letting a winnable game slip away.
NFC South Standings After Week 15’s TNF Opener
- Carolina Panthers: 7-6
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7-7
- Atlanta Falcons: 4-10
- New Orleans Saints: 3-10
The Panthers, who face the Saints this Sunday, now sit atop the division. If they win, they’ll gain a full-game lead with three to play - and they’ll be in the driver’s seat the rest of the way. But if Carolina stumbles, Tampa Bay is right back in the mix.
Panthers’ Final Stretch: The Road Isn’t Easy
Here’s what Carolina has left on the schedule:
- Week 15: at Saints
- Week 16: vs.
Buccaneers
- Week 17: vs.
Seahawks
- Week 18: at Buccaneers
The Panthers can’t afford to look past the Saints, even with a revenge game on deck. Let’s not forget - New Orleans already beat Carolina once this season, back in Week 10. That loss could come back to haunt them if they drop another one here.
Carolina’s closing slate is no cakewalk. Two games against Tampa, a tough Seahawks team fighting for playoff seeding, and a tricky road test in New Orleans. If they want to lock up the division, they’ll need to earn it.
The good news? They control their own fate. Win out, and the NFC South is theirs.
Buccaneers’ Path to the Playoffs: No Margin for Error
Tampa Bay’s remaining schedule:
- Week 16: at Panthers
- Week 17: at Dolphins
- Week 18: vs. Panthers
The Bucs have three games left, and two of them are against Carolina. That’s both a blessing and a curse.
On one hand, they’ll have direct chances to knock off the team currently ahead of them. On the other, they’ll need to win at least one - and maybe both - to stay alive.
And don’t overlook that Week 17 trip to Miami. The Dolphins are a playoff-caliber team, and that’s going to be a tough ask for a Bucs squad that’s been inconsistent all season.
For now, Tampa Bay needs help. They’ll be rooting for the Saints this weekend, and then it’s all about taking care of business in Week 16. If they fall to Carolina again, their postseason hopes could be on life support.
Falcons: Playing Spoiler with an Eye on the Draft
Atlanta’s final three games:
- Week 16: at Cardinals
- Week 17: vs.
Rams
- Week 18: vs.
Saints
The Falcons are out of the playoff race, but they’re still making noise. Thursday night’s win over Tampa Bay was a reminder that this team has fight - and they could still impact the playoff picture for others.
They’ll face the Rams in Week 17, a game that could have serious postseason implications for Los Angeles. That’s a cross-country trip for the Rams, and Atlanta could be a trap game if they’re not careful.
The Falcons don’t control their 2026 first-round pick, so the draft implications are a bit more complicated. But with two divisional games left, they’ll have a say in how the NFC South shakes out - even from the outside looking in.
Saints: Out of Contention, But Not Out of the Picture
New Orleans’ remaining schedule:
- Week 15: vs. Panthers
- Week 16: vs. Jets
- Week 17: at Titans
- Week 18: at Falcons
The Saints are done in terms of playoff hopes, but they’ve got a chance to play spoiler - starting this Sunday against Carolina. A win there would throw the NFC South race into chaos and give Tampa Bay a shot at regaining control.
They’ll also face the Jets and Titans, two teams likely jockeying for top-five draft position. That Week 17 matchup in Tennessee could have major implications for April.
For New Orleans, it’s all about pride - and positioning. But don’t underestimate the motivation of knocking a division rival off their path to the postseason.
Final Word: NFC South Is Far from Settled
With four weeks to go, the NFC South is still very much up for grabs. Carolina has the edge, but Tampa Bay isn’t out of it - not by a long shot. The next few weeks will be all about execution, resilience, and who can rise to the moment when it matters most.
Circle Weeks 16 and 18 on your calendar. Panthers vs. Buccaneers - twice in three weeks - could decide it all.
Buckle up. The NFC South may not be the flashiest division in football, but it’s delivering drama down the stretch.