The NFC South has flipped fast, and the Saints are now sitting in the oddsmakers’ driver’s seat.
After two weeks, New Orleans has climbed to the top of the division market thanks to a 1-1 start that includes an overtime loss to the Detroit Lions in Week 1 and a stunning upset of the Baltimore Ravens in Week 2. Tyler Shough, Kellen Moore and the Saints have gone from an afterthought to the team books are now treating as the most likely winner in the South.
“Yeah, for us, it's the Saints by a pretty sizable margin,” Ty Gour, Sports Trader at Fanatics Sportsbook, told Sports Illustrated about Fanatics’ thought on the NFC South. “The Saints looked good in their two games. They came out slow in both of them, but they were able to turn the ship around, and against two good teams on the road as well in Detroit and Baltimore.”
At Fanatics, the Buccaneers’ loss to Cleveland took a real bite out of Tampa Bay’s standing, and that’s reflected in the market, where the Bucs are listed at +330 to win the division. Still, nobody is acting like this race is over.
“The NFC South, that is very competitive,” Johnny Avello, Director of Race and Sports Operations for DraftKings Sportsbook, told Sports Illustrated. “We do rate the Saints the best in the division, but not by that much.
New Orleans, Carolina, Tampa are still - they're probably within a point and a half of each other on the power ratings. So it's really close there.”
DraftKings has New Orleans at +120 to win the division, with Carolina next at +250.
Caesars isn’t ready to crown the Saints just yet, but it does have them trending in the right direction.
“While the Saints have not yet climbed to the top of our NFC South power rankings, they have undoubtedly been one of the most impressive teams through the first two weeks of the season,” Joey Feazel, Head of Football at Caesars Sportsbook, told Sports Illustrated.
One thing making this division harder to pin down is how little intra-division data there is so far. Carolina and Atlanta are the only NFC South teams to have played a division game, and the Panthers dominated that meeting.
That’s part of why some books still see a tight finish ahead.
“If I had to guess I'd say this division will come down to the last two weeks and three teams will be alive,” Christian Cipollini, Senior Trading Manager at BetMGM, told Sports Illustrated. “Panthers, Saints and Bucs are all similarly rated. Bucs of course can bounce back, but the Saints and Panthers have both shown a lot of things to like so far.”
Early on, Shough and Bryce Young have both made their cases. Shough has sparked multiple comeback efforts, while Young has thrown six touchdowns in two games.
In EPA/Play on offense, Carolina sits at No. 7 and New Orleans at No. 12.
Atlanta is still viewed as a long shot in the division picture, but Michael Penix Jr.’s return for Week 3 could still have some impact on the bigger landscape. The Falcons play Green Bay on Thursday night, and oddsmakers have already adjusted after seeing Atlanta struggle with Cooper Rush at quarterback. The line has moved from seven-point underdogs to 4.5-point underdogs.
“I think he's the best option for them,” Avello said of Penix. “He was the best option, probably, going into the season. The bettors just feel that it's probably a good spot for them.”
Tampa Bay opened the season as the clear favorite, but two weeks in, the market has shifted hard toward New Orleans. And with the Panthers, Bucs and Saints all still clustered together, this one looks like it could stay messy for a while.
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