The National League wild-card series opens Tuesday with a familiar matchup and a simple setup: the Braves, who won the NL East and finished six games ahead of the Phillies, will host all three games at Truist Park if the series goes the distance.
Atlanta had the upper hand all season long, going 9-4 against Philadelphia in 13 meetings, including a 4-2 mark at home. That history, plus the way the rotation lines up, is a big reason the Braves are positioned to control this series from the jump.
Game 1 belongs to Chris Sale, and Philadelphia has already seen plenty of him. Sale faced the Phillies four times during the regular season and went 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA, 29 strikeouts and six walks across 26 innings.
He’ll take the ball at home, where he posted a 1.66 ERA in 14 starts this year, and he draws a Phillies offense that faded down the stretch, finishing September with the second-lowest OPS in the league at .660. Philadelphia also struggled away from Citizens Bank Park, putting up a .664 OPS on the road, second-worst in MLB.
Sale has seen this lineup more than any other this season, and the matchup sets up well for Atlanta.
Ronald Acuña Jr. is another reason the Braves have plenty of confidence. He didn’t look like himself for much of the year, but September was his best month of the regular season.
In 22 games, he hit seven home runs, drove in 19 runs and posted a .950 OPS. Against the Phillies specifically, he was even better, finishing with four homers, 10 RBIs and a 1.147 OPS in 13 games.
Philadelphia will not have Jesus Luzardo available to soak up innings in the postseason, though he is set to open Game 1, and Zack Wheeler likely won’t go deep after starting the final game of the regular season. That could push more of the load onto Andrew Painter, Aaron Nola and Cristopher Sánchez.
Acuña looks ready for it, especially in Game 1, and he could finish the series with at least four extra-base hits.
Kyle Schwarber brings the kind of power that can change a short series in a hurry. He sits third all-time in postseason home runs with 23, trailing Jose Altuve by four and Manny Ramirez by six.
Even with a quieter September, Schwarber has a chance to add to that total in Game 2, when Atlanta is expected to start Tyler Mahle. Schwarber has handled Mahle well in the past, producing a .909 OPS with two homers and four RBIs in 25 at-bats against him.
He also did most of his damage this season against right-handed pitching, with 30 of his 45 homers coming against righties. That matchup points to a big night, and Schwarber could leave Game 2 with a pair of home runs.
The prediction here is that the Braves end it in two and move on to face the Dodgers in the NLDS. Atlanta finished the season as one of five teams with 50-plus home wins, and Sale’s presence in Game 1 should put the Phillies on the back foot right away.
Sánchez is lined up for Game 2, but he has been giving up runs consistently, allowing two or more in each of his last five starts, including a three-run outing against Atlanta at the start of September. With the Braves playing so well at home, Wednesday should be enough to close the door before the series ever reaches a third game.
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