The Phillies have spent the past few months digging out of a brutal start, and the climb has them right back in the NL East mix. They opened 9-19, fired Rob Thomson, and have been one of the best teams in baseball since. Even so, they’re still chasing the Braves, sitting 2.0 games back coming out of the All-Star break.
That’s why ESPN’s latest division projection feels so low for Philadelphia. Bradford Doolittle gives the Phillies a 26.7% chance to win the NL East, a number that lands well below what the race feels like on the ground.
Doolittle’s projection reads: "Record 54-43 | Projected final record: 89-73. Division title odds: 26.7% | Playoff odds: 77.8% | Championship odds: 3.4%," Doolittle projects.
The Braves, meanwhile, are given a 64.2% shot to take the division.
On paper, the gap between the two teams is only 2.0 games. In ESPN’s model, though, Philadelphia is being treated like a club that still has a pretty steep hill to climb over the final 2.5 months. That’s a tough sell for a team that has been playing much better baseball since the change to Don Mattingly.
And there’s another layer here: this doesn’t look like a finished roster. With an aging core and clear needs in the rotation, the back end of the bullpen, and a right-handed hitting outfielder, the Phillies could be active at the deadline. Dave Dombrowski landing meaningful help would only make this race tighter.
That’s what makes the 26.7% figure stand out. The Phillies are close, they’re trending up, and they still have time to make a move. ESPN just isn’t giving them much credit for it.
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For Braves fans, the interesting part is how quickly a player like that can become part of the conversation when a club is looking for help and other options around the position are drawing attention. Volpes profile is still built on potential more than certainty, and that is exactly why any rumor tied to him invites debate, especially when the alternative path points toward a cleaner short-term answer. [Read more 🡒]