The Braves are trying to shake off a maddening loss from Game 1 against the Mets, and tonight they hand the ball to Martín Pérez.
Pérez has been in the league for 15 years, and this has quietly become the second-best season of his career. His ERA sits at 3.14, which is also the second-best mark he has posted in a season, and he has already piled up the second-most WAR of his career.
There is some good fortune baked into those numbers, though. His expected ERA is 4.32, and the gap lines up with a .232 BABIP, far below his career .303, plus a 79.7 percent strand rate that is well above his career 71.4 percent. Even with that in mind, Pérez has been arguably the best pickup for the Braves this offseason.
The Mets already saw him in the first week of July, and that outing went sideways. Pérez worked 4.1 innings, allowed six hits and four earned runs, and finished with just one strikeout against two walks.
A.J. Ewing got to him for a solo homer in that game, and the Mets went 5-for-7 with runners in scoring position. That said, there is reason to think Pérez could get a different result this time if he does a better job of stranding runners.
A few Mets hitters have also handled him well in the past. Francisco Lindor has 25 at-bats against Pérez and owns a 1.213 OPS in those matchups. Bo Bichette has an OPS of 1.100 in 15 at-bats, and Marcus Semien has seen him a massive 41 times and is batting .268 against him.
On the other side, Nolan McLean is set to face Pérez again after doing so in his last outing. That previous meeting turned into a 10-9 Mets win, but McLean was not the reason why. He threw 6.0 innings, gave up two earned runs, and struck out five while walking just one.
Since the All-Star break, the two lineups have been close offensively. The Braves rank seventh in runs scored in that span, while the Mets are 10th. The pitching numbers are close too, with Atlanta sitting 12th in team ERA at 3.77 and New York eighth at 3.55.
The numbers suggest this could come down to which side strikes first, just like it did last night. Atlanta’s starting pitching has been excellent since the break, ranking third in SP ERA, while the Mets sit ninth worst. For Pérez, the assignment is clear: answer the last meeting with a better start and give the Braves a chance to bounce back.
In Other News...
Braves Could Push For A Star Shortstop Rival Fans Would Hate
The Braves are already being connected to one of the more intriguing offseason questions on the market, and shortstop sits near the center of it. Atlanta has a chance to look for an upgrade there, and the kind of player who could move the needle is the sort who usually costs real prospect capital and then some. In division deals have never been the norm, but they have become more common lately, which is why this conversation has at least some traction.
One name hovering around that search is a young shortstop who could become available if his current club cannot lock him up long term. For Atlanta, the appeal is obvious: a chance to target a player with upside at a position of need, even if doing so would mean dealing with a rival and putting together a package strong enough to make them listen. It is the kind of possibility that can reshape the rest of the winter if the Braves decide to press hard enough. [Read more 🡒]
Braves Injured Starters Are Progressing But One Return Loos Large
The Braves finally have some movement on the pitching injury front, even if the updates come with plenty of caution attached. Spencer Strider and Hurston Waldrep, both sidelined by elbow inflammation, have avoided surgery and have started throwing programs, while Spencer Schwellenbach has begun bullpen work as he tries to build back toward a possible return this season.
Reynaldo Lopez may be the most immediate name to watch, which matters for a staff that has spent too much time piecing things together. He is recovering from knee inflammation and appears closest to coming back, with the Braves also considering using him out of the bullpen instead of sending him straight back into the starting rotation. [Read more 🡒]
Reynaldo Lpez Could Force A Braves Pitching Decision That Changes Everything
The Braves are entering the kind of pitching puzzle teams usually hope to have in September, when injured arms start filtering back and the staff begins to take shape for October. Reynaldo Lpez is right in the middle of it after a recent bullpen session, and Atlanta is weighing how best to use him as the rotation picture gets more crowded with pitchers returning and the postseason roster coming into focus.
Lpez remains a name to watch because the Braves still have to decide whether his next value comes from starting games or helping out of the bullpen, and that choice could ripple through the rest of the staff. AJ Smith-Shawver has also reinserted himself into the conversation after a strong rehab outing with Gwinnett, while Spencer Schwellenbach is another piece the Braves are evaluating as they try to sort out who fits where when the games matter most. [Read more 🡒]