The division series brings four heavyweight matchups, and each one has a different kind of edge to it. Some of these series look tight enough to go the full distance. Others could turn on one starter getting hit hard, or one superstar waking up at the right time.
Start in the American League, where the Yankees and Rays meet in a series that feels bigger than a division round. New York got through the Red Sox in a two-game sweep in the wild-card series, while Tampa arrives as the AL East champ.
The two clubs were the only ones in the league to top 90 wins, and they played each other 13 times in the regular season. The Rays took seven of those games, even though the Yankees outscored them 54-45 overall.
That gap in the run total says plenty about how even this matchup is. Both teams bring high-end starting pitching and bullpens that can shorten games in a hurry.
The Yankees scored 739 runs in the regular season, just ahead of Tampa Bay’s 736, but they go about it differently. The Rays lean on contact and small ball.
The Yankees usually let the power do the talking, though Wednesday showed they can scrape together runs in other ways too. This one looks like a grind, and the prediction here is that it goes deep, with late swings and extra innings shaping the outcome.
The White Sox-Guardians series offers a sharper contrast in style. Chicago comes in with shaky starting pitching and more power than contact at the plate.
Cleveland brings a stronger rotation and a lineup built more around putting the ball in play than driving it over the fence. The White Sox finished 7-6 against the Guardians in their 13 regular-season meetings, so there wasn’t much separating them there either.
Game 1 puts Parker Messick in the spotlight. He faced Chicago four times during the regular season and went 2-1 in those starts, posting a 2.81 ERA with 29 strikeouts and five walks in 25 2/3 innings.
He’s already familiar with this lineup, and the expectation is that he uses that knowledge to turn in a clean start and work at least seven innings. In two of his four outings against the White Sox, he lasted seven innings or more, and only once did he go fewer than six.
The call here is a strong opening performance that gives Cleveland an early series edge.
Out in the National League, the Padres and Brewers bring a different kind of October test. San Diego won four of six meetings with Milwaukee during the regular season, even though the Brewers finished with MLB’s best record at 103-59. Milwaukee’s pitching is a strength, but its rotation is also inexperienced in postseason settings, and that could matter against a Padres lineup that has already shown it can handle October pressure.
Jurrangelo Misiorowski’s lone start against the Padres came in May, when Jackson Merrill and Fernando Tatis Jr. were both in rough stretches. He threw seven scoreless innings that day, but this matchup looks tougher now.
San Diego tied for the second-most runs in the second half, and the club that matched it was Milwaukee. The Padres also put together a huge September, finishing with a league-best .815 OPS and 232 hits.
The prediction is that Misiorowski runs into trouble early and doesn’t make it through the fifth inning in his first postseason start.
Then there’s Dodgers-Braves, the series that brings the biggest star power. Atlanta took five of six from Los Angeles during the regular season, which is a real feather in its cap, but the Dodgers are coming into October at full strength. That changes the feel of the matchup.
Shohei Ohtani is the name to watch. His second half was quiet as he dealt with lingering knee and biceps injuries, and after returning from the IL on Sept. 23, he wasn’t especially productive at the plate.
He played only eight games in September, but the postseason gives him a fresh stage. The prediction is a big start for Ohtani in the NLDS, with three home runs in the series, including two in one game.
He already has 11 career postseason homers in 33 games, with eight coming during last year’s World Series run, and the expectation is that he adds to that total quickly against Atlanta.
In Other News...
Braves Fans Had To Love How Fast This Phillies Jinx Backfired
The broadcast booth did Atlanta a favor in Game 3 of the National League wild-card series, even if not by design. Joey Votto, in his first season as an in-game analyst after a long run as a player, suggested the Braves would not score again, only for Atlanta to answer with two runs later in the inning and turn the prediction into instant bulletin-board material.
For Braves fans, it was the kind of jinx that aged badly almost immediately and made for a small but satisfying subplot in a tense postseason game. Vottos stint in the role is limited to the wild-card round, since NBC does not have rights beyond that stage, so the misfire came in a brief audition that the Braves and their supporters will remember for the wrong reason. [Read more 🡒]
Braves May Have Created A Huge Chris Sale Problem Before Dodgers Series
Chris Sale gave the Braves exactly the kind of punch they needed in Game 3, even if it came in an unusual spot. After being lined up to start Game 2 and having already thrown 95 pitches two days earlier, Sale volunteered to come out of the bullpen and delivered 1 sharp innings in relief, striking out Bryce Harper and Otto Lopez as Atlanta grabbed the postseason win over the Phillies.
The immediate reward was obvious, but the longer-term cost is now part of the conversation as the Division Series shifts to the Dodgers. Walt Weiss said Sale stepped up when the Braves needed him, and that kind of flexibility matters in October, yet it also raises a real question about what he has left if Atlanta needs him again soon in a much bigger series. [Read more 🡒]
Dodgers Catch A Huge NLDS Break As Braves Rotation Thins
The Braves pitching plan took a hit before the National League Division Series even got underway, with Martn Prez landing on the 15-day injured list because of lower back inflammation. Manager Walt Weiss said Prez will not be available against the Dodgers, though there is still a chance he could return if Atlanta keeps moving into the NLCS. For a rotation already needing to cover a lot of ground in October, losing a veteran arm at this stage changes the shape of the series.
Atlanta will have to piece together innings with other options, including AJ Smith-Shawver and JR Ritchie, and that puts even more pressure on a staff trying to navigate one of the postseasons toughest lineups. The Dodgers were already a demanding matchup, and now the Braves have to find a way through it without one of the pitchers they were counting on to help steady the middle of games. [Read more 🡒]