Chris Sale’s three-year run in Atlanta has gone from a gamble to one of the most striking stretches any starter has put together in the modern game.
That was never the expectation when the Braves took the chance on him. Sale had been battered by injuries, limited to just 151 total innings from 2020-23, and his work from 2019 onward - a 4.16 ERA and 113 ERA+ - looked like a clear step back from the first nine seasons of his career, when he posted a 2.89 ERA and 144 ERA+.
Instead, the answer has been a loud yes.
Sale won the National League Cy Young Award in 2024, is a finalist for the honor again this year and has made the All-Star team in each of his three seasons with Atlanta. Since the start of 2024, he has stacked up numbers that put him among the best starters in baseball, and in some cases among the best ever for a pitcher his age.
His ERA+ has been north of 160 in each of those three seasons, meaning his run prevention has been at least 60% better than league average after adjusting for context. In the Modern Era, only a handful of pitchers age 35 and older have put together three or more seasons like that with at least 120 innings in each year: Lefty Grove, Randy Johnson, Justin Verlander and Sale.
Sale and Johnson are the only starters to do it in three straight seasons at that age. Johnson, of course, was 41 during that 2004 season, which makes the company even more eye-opening.
The deeper numbers make Sale’s Atlanta stretch look even more outrageous. Among starters age 35 or older with at least 400 innings since the beginning of 2024, his 31.7% strikeout rate and 26.2% K-BB rate are both the best in the Modern Era. Johnson ranks second in both categories.
And this isn’t just an age-based quirk. Among Braves starters in the Modern Era, only Greg Maddux has matched a 160 or better ERA+ in at least three consecutive seasons, doing it every year from 1993-98. Sale’s 178 ERA+ from 2024-26 stands as the best in MLB over that span, and only Jacob deGrom has topped it in any three-season stretch over the past decade, with a 188 ERA+ across 489 innings for the Mets from 2018-20.
The obvious next question is whether he can keep it rolling.
Nothing from this past season suggested a sudden collapse was coming. Sale’s 196 ERA+ was his second-best mark in a full season, trailing only his 209 ERA+ in 2018.
He reached 200 strikeouts for the ninth time, posted a 30.9% strikeout rate and led qualified NL pitchers with a 4.8% walk rate. He also delivered one of the best individual outings of his 16-season career in late August.
The velocity is still there, too. Sale threw his four-seamer at 96.1 mph, the hardest he has ever thrown it in a season and 1.3 mph harder than in 2024 and 2025. He also recorded a 100 mph strikeout pitch for the first time in eight years.
There’s no getting around the age factor, and his injury history will always keep some risk attached. But for now, the upside still dwarfs the concern whenever Sale is healthy and the ball is in his left hand.
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Braves Fans Have A New Homegrown Bat Worth Watching
Conor Essenburg has quickly become one of the more intriguing names in the Braves system, the kind of homegrown bat that can make a farm report feel a little more relevant to the big-league picture. The 2025 fifth-round pick got off to an injury-shortened start in pro ball, but the early signs of progress have been encouraging, with better hitting, improved plate discipline and more power showing up as he moved through the minors.
A promotion to Rome followed, and that is usually where a prospect starts to separate himself from the pack or fade into the background. Essenburg has done enough to keep drawing attention, and the industry buzz around him suggests there could be something bigger coming if the development keeps trending the right way. For Braves fans looking beyond the current roster, he is the sort of outfielder worth tracking closely as the system searches for the next real breakout. [Read more 🡒]
Braves Payroll Spike Just Sparked An Uncomfortable Roster Debate
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What makes the discussion a little more uncomfortable is the gap between spending and production. Atlanta added $77 million in payroll, but the roster math has not neatly matched the financial outlay, and the teams better season performance does not appear to have been driven directly by higher player salaries. For a club that has built its identity around sustained contention, the question now is whether the extra investment is buying the kind of impact that matters most when the standings tighten. [Read more 🡒]
Braves Would Have To Ignore One Real Concern To Sign Shota Imanaga
Shota Imanaga has built a strong case over three major league seasons, giving teams a steady left-handed starter with a 3.45 ERA and 6.5 bWAR across 86 starts. Even so, the market around him has stayed a little cooler than you might expect for a pitcher with that kind of track record, with early projections landing around a two-year, $40 million deal.
For the Braves, the appeal is obvious enough. Imanaga has been productive and consistent, but the concern is just as clear: his fly-ball profile can make him a tricky fit for clubs that do not want to live with extra damage on mistakes. Teams with more forgiving ballparks may be more willing to look past that, which is why Atlanta would have to decide whether the upside is worth accepting a real risk that has followed him throughout his time in the majors. [Read more 🡒]