The Braves have a chance Thursday afternoon to do something they’ve struggled to do lately: finish a series the right way.
Atlanta comes into the rubber game at PNC Park having won just one series since sweeping the Pirates at home in early June, a stretch that has gone 8-17. After a lopsided loss in the opener and a late push in a shutout win in Game 2, the Braves and Pirates will settle it at 12:35 p.m.
ET before Atlanta heads to St. Louis for the weekend.
If the Braves are going to leave Pittsburgh with a series win, they’ll need Bryce Elder to look a lot more like the pitcher he was earlier this season.
Elder’s overall numbers still show a 5-6 record and a 4.01 ERA, but those figures don’t really match the way he’s pitched recently. He hasn’t worked since June 27, when he was skipped once through the order after a rough stretch that has dragged his season down.
The right-hander opened the year with a 5-3 record and a 2.66 ERA over his first 14 starts. Since then, it’s been a steep slide.
Elder has lost his last three outings and has given up 19 runs on 27 hits across 14 innings. In June, opposing hitters managed a .313 average against him, and he posted a 1.61 WHIP while allowing 35 hits and 24 runs in 26 2/3 innings.
A matchup with Pittsburgh might be exactly what he needs to get back on track. Elder’s last strong outing came against the Pirates in Atlanta, when he allowed two runs on two hits over six innings. That was his 10th quality start in 14 appearances at the time, and he hasn’t come close to that level since.
Against Pittsburgh in his career, Elder is 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA in four starts, with 26 strikeouts and five walks over 24 innings.
The Pirates will counter with Mitch Keller, a pitcher who once looked like he might be the next big arm in Pittsburgh before the Paul Skenes era changed the conversation. Keller was an All-Star in 2023 and had finished each of the last four seasons with an ERA of 4.25 or better.
This year has been a tougher ride. The 30-year-old enters at 6-6 with a 5.02 ERA, which is his worst mark since his first 100-inning season in 2021.
Keller’s season has followed a similar pattern to Elder’s in one respect: a strong start that has unraveled. Over his six starts since June began, he’s 1-4 with a 6.47 ERA, 23 strikeouts and 13 walks in 32 innings. The slide really started in his last outing in May, and he wasn’t sharp on June 5 against Atlanta either, when he gave up six runs on seven hits in 4 2/3 innings.
That fits with how the Braves have handled him over the years. Keller is 1-4 with a 7.85 ERA in eight career starts against Atlanta.
Atlanta, meanwhile, hasn’t been nearly as reliable in rubber games as it was earlier in the season. The Braves won eight of their first nine deciding games, but they’ve dropped their last four.
In Other News...
Braves May Already Have Their Best Shortstop Answer In House
Cristian Dubn has quietly become one of the more useful bats in the Braves mix, showing up near the top of the club in batting average and OPS while adding the kind of situational production that tends to matter in October-style baseball. His work has been especially notable with two outs and runners in scoring position, and he has also given Atlanta valuable defensive flexibility by handling shortstop and several other spots around the diamond.
That versatility is part of why Dubn has started to look like a real answer for a team still sorting out its long-term shortstop picture. The Braves have other options in the conversation, and rookie Jim Jarvis has done enough to stay on the radar, but he still profiles more as a utility piece than a clear everyday solution. With the position unsettled beyond this season, Dubns all-around value is making the decision harder, not easier. [Read more 🡒]
Braves Deadline Focus Just Shifted To A Move Fans Have Wanted
Atlantas position atop the NL East has held up even through a rough June, and a recent series win over the Pirates offered a reminder that the Braves are still very much in the mix. But the bigger picture around the club has shifted toward what comes next, with Alex Anthopoulos already signaling that Atlanta expects to be active at the trade deadline and that pitching help will be a priority.
The emphasis on starting pitching makes sense for a team trying to steady itself for the stretch run, and the market could push the Braves toward a familiar veteran type if they decide to make a move. Sonny Gray has surfaced as one name to watch, giving fans a reason to keep an eye on how aggressively Atlanta pursues rotation upgrades over the next few weeks. [Read more 🡒]
ESPN Just Revealed Two Braves Deadline Fits Fans Will Obsess Over
The Braves deadline conversation is already taking shape around two very different needs, and ESPNs Jeff Passan put a spotlight on both. Atlanta is looking for starting pitching help, and Passan flagged Freddy Peralta as a possible fit while also pointing to the shortstop market, where CJ Abrams stands out as the kind of player who could reshape a lineup if he ever became available.
Abrams is the more intriguing name for Braves fans because the upside is obvious, but the path to a deal is anything but. Passan noted the Nationals are highly unlikely to move him and would drive a massive price if they even entertained it, which leaves Atlanta in the familiar spot of weighing big-name possibilities against the reality of what actually gets done in July. [Read more 🡒]