Shota Imanaga is shaping up as one of the offseason’s more interesting free-agent names, and the fit with Atlanta is easy to see at first glance. Over his three Major League seasons, he has piled up a 3.45 ERA, 3.92 xFIP, 19% K-BB%, and 6.5 bWAR in 86 starts. That’s the kind of steady production the Braves could use in their rotation.
The catch is why his market looks lighter than expected. ESPN and MLB Trade Rumors both project Imanaga for a 2-year, $40 million deal, a modest number for a pitcher entering his age-33 season with that kind of track record. The issue dragging down the price is the same one that could keep Atlanta from going all-in: the home run problem.
Big league teams have reason to hesitate because homers can wreck a postseason outing, and that has helped shape the way clubs view Imanaga. It’s also part of why the Cubs have not been comfortable enough to trust him in October.
For Alex Anthopoulos, that’s no small thing. He has long leaned away from pitchers with this kind of flaw, and it doesn’t line up neatly with his idea of a “pitcher who can make a postseason start.”
The numbers back up the concern. Imanaga is a fly ball pitcher, and in 2026 he ranked in the 23rd percentile in ground ball rate.
Last season, he allowed the second-highest home run rate per nine innings among qualified starters in baseball at 1.81 HR/9. Chris Sale, by comparison, had the lowest mark in MLB at 0.55 HR/9.
Imanaga’s 16.1% home run-to-fly ball ratio was also the third highest in the league.
That profile is a big reason some around the game expect him to end up with a team like the Giants, whose spacious home park could help cover for his fly-ball tendencies.
Still, the home run issue shouldn’t automatically shut the door for Atlanta. Imanaga brings a strong strikeout rate, an elite walk rate, and durability, all of which would help the Braves’ rotation.
He also averaged 91.6 mph on his fastball last season, which makes the gamble real, but he keeps producing anyway. If the projected contract numbers hold, Atlanta should be ready to move quickly on a short-term starter who can give them reliable innings.
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The concern, of course, is the same one that has followed Sale for much of his career. Even with the historic run he has put together in Atlanta, his injury history remains part of the conversation every time he takes the mound, and that reality hangs over a Braves rotation that has learned how much it can change when he is healthy. For now, the payoff has been obvious, but the long view still comes with one unavoidable question. [Read more 🡒]