The Braves are in tune-up mode now, and the Reds are right there with them.
With the division already clinched and the odds of landing anything other than the No. 3 seed in the NL looking slim, Atlanta is using these final two series to get ready for October. First up is a home set against Cincinnati before the regular season wraps in Miami. For the Reds, it’s been a long slide toward the finish line, and the numbers have been ugly all year.
Cincinnati enters this series at 72-84, a steep drop from the surprising playoff run it pieced together in 2025 after a Mets collapse opened the door. That club came into this season with modest expectations - a 78-win central estimate and playoff odds around 17 percent - and even those were too generous. The Reds haven’t just missed the mark; they’ve fallen well short of it, with both the lineup and the pitching staff grading out in the bottom ten.
There are a couple of real bright spots, though they’ve been isolated. Elly de la Cruz has been the star of the position-player group, piling up 6.3 fWAR in 603 plate appearances and counting.
Sal Stewart has added plenty of pop of his own, but beyond those two, the production drops off fast. Cincinnati has three players with at least 200 plate appearances and -0.8 fWAR or worse, and the lack of depth has been brutal.
The same story holds on the mound: Chase Burns has been excellent, posting 4.3 fWAR in 154 1/3 innings and counting, but the rest of the staff has offered very little.
The Reds did have a hot start, going 20-11 through April 30. Then came an eight-game losing streak, and the season never really recovered. Since then, the monthly hitting and pitching numbers have mostly lived in the bottom half or worse.
That’s why this matchup feels less like a meaningful late-season showdown and more like a look ahead. Atlanta is thinking about the playoffs. Cincinnati is already thinking about next year, with Burns and de la Cruz standing out as building blocks and plenty else still needing work.
The Braves are sending JR Ritchie to the mound, and he’s looking for a better finish before an offseason shutdown. There’s even a chance he could stick around as a mop-up option on a playoff roster, though Atlanta has enough arms to fill that role already.
Ritchie has had a rough major league stint overall, carrying a 119/135/115 line in ERA-, FIP- and xFIP- across nine starts and six relief outings, totaling 62 2/3 innings. He has flashed here and there - including two solid long-relief appearances against the Mets - but he’s still chasing the feeling he had in his debut against the Nationals back in April, when he struck out seven and walked two while allowing two solo homers.
There’s a path forward for him, at least in theory. Ritchie could fit a Kyle Wright-style makeover as a sinker-curve-changeup pitcher with less emphasis on the four-seamer.
The issue is command. He’s got some encouraging pieces, including curveball shape, strong seam-shifted wake on certain pitches, and impressive spin mirroring between his fastballs and curve.
But his ability to consistently put any pitch where he wants it - or even just clip the zone without drifting into dangerous spots - has been shaky, and that has dragged everything down.
That makes this start a useful test against a Cincinnati offense that has struggled badly. Once park effects are accounted for, and even before fully discounting the fact that the Reds have underperformed their underlying inputs, they’ve produced the worst batting line in MLB. Part of that may be tied to the small-ball style they’ve been coaching in Cincinnati, which has not translated into results.
Brandon Williamson gets the ball for the Reds. The 28-year-old left-hander has been part of the broader problem, though his situation comes with some context.
Williamson was acquired in the pre-2023 trade that sent Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez to Seattle, and he gave Cincinnati a decent rookie season, posting a 97/101/108 line with 1.8 fWAR in 117 innings. Since then, injuries have taken a heavy toll.
Shoulder and elbow issues wiped out most of 2024, all of 2025, and have continued to linger in 2026.
He opened this season in the rotation but got shelled across six starts, then spent four months out with shoulder fatigue. Williamson returned in September, logged a so-so start, and has since been used in long relief.
Atlanta already saw plenty of him in one of those 2024 outings before he went down with another arm injury. The Reds have not faced Ritchie yet.
In Other News...
Braves Fans Got A Clearer Look At Who Helped Gwinnett Matter
The Gwinnett Stripers finished their minor league season at 76-73, giving Braves followers a useful look at a farm club that stayed relevant deep into the summer. Gwinnett was one of just two Atlanta affiliates to post a winning record in 2026, and that mattered because the Stripers were often the organizations most visible proving ground for players moving up, moving through, or trying to get back on track.
Brewer Hicklen and Owen Murphy ended up taking the top honors, with Hicklen earning hitter of the year after a .302 season with 18 home runs and 30 stolen bases, and Murphy named pitcher of the year after working to a 3.07 ERA with 94 strikeouts. The broader picture was just as encouraging for Atlanta, with several other contributors turning in notable seasons and a number of major leaguers passing through Gwinnett along the way, giving Braves fans a clearer sense of who helped keep the affiliate mattering. [Read more 🡒]
Walt Weiss Built A Braves Case Voters May Be Ignoring
The Braves got back to the top of the division in 2026 under first-year manager Walt Weiss, and the case for his work is easy to see when you look at the circumstances surrounding the season. Atlanta had to navigate major injuries to key players and plenty of strain on the starting rotation, yet still finished with 92 wins and its first division title since 2023.
Pat Murphy is still the favorite for NL Manager of the Year, but Weiss has built a resume that deserves more attention than it has gotten. First-year manager, depleted roster, division crown, 92 wins - it adds up to a strong argument for voters who tend to reward the obvious success stories and overlook the steady job behind them. [Read more 🡒]
Robert Suarez Has Become A Huge Braves October Decision
Robert Suarez took another step back toward Atlanta on Sunday, turning in a scoreless inning for Gwinnett and flashing the kind of velocity the Braves have been waiting to see as he works his way back from injury. With the minor-league season now over, the clubs next move is more about timing and trust than pure rehab, and general manager Alex Anthopoulos said Suarez is likely to be activated soon, perhaps by midweek.
For the Braves, the question is whether that means enough to make him part of the postseason picture. October roster spots are hard to earn this late in the process, especially for a reliever still proving his body is ready, and Suarezs return will force the front office and coaching staff to weigh upside against certainty as they settle on the group they want for the postseason. [Read more 🡒]