When it comes to the MLB Draft, the Atlanta Braves have earned a reputation for finding value in places others might overlook. But even the best-run organizations take big swings-and sometimes miss-when it comes to overslot picks. That’s the category Conor Essenburg falls into, and the Braves are betting big that he’ll be the exception to a recent trend that hasn’t exactly gone their way.
Essenburg’s Price Tag Signals High Expectations
Drafted 157th overall in the fifth round of the 2025 MLB Draft, Essenburg came with a hefty price tag. The slot value for that pick was $438,600, but the Braves shelled out $1,197,500 to get his signature-a clear sign they see something special.
And it’s not hard to understand why. At just 19 years old, Essenburg brings a tantalizing mix of tools to the table.
He’s got elite bat speed, real power potential, and a cannon for an arm. Though he also pitched in high school and did it well, Atlanta made it clear they see his future in the batter’s box.
Overslot History: A Mixed Bag for Atlanta
The Braves haven’t exactly struck gold with their recent overslot investments. Since 2021, they’ve handed out several above-slot bonuses, and the returns have been inconsistent at best. Take a look:
- 2024: Nick Montgomery ($997,500 in the 5th round) and Ethan Bagwell ($822,500 in the 6th) both signed for well above slot. Montgomery, in particular, struggled in 2025 with a .170/.272/.252 slash line and 119 strikeouts. That’s a lot of swing-and-miss for a nearly seven-figure investment.
- 2023: Drue Hackenberg was a second-rounder who signed for $2 million, nearly double slot value. Garrett Baumann and Isaiah Drake also came in over slot, but none have yet emerged as impact players.
- 2022: The Braves went big on JR Ritchie ($2.4 million), Cole Phillips ($1.5 million), and Adam Maier ($1.2 million). Again, flashes of talent, but no breakout stars-at least not yet.
- 2021: This class included Justyn-Henry Malloy and AJ Smith-Shawver. Malloy was later flipped to the Tigers for reliever Joe Jiménez-a deal that paid off short-term before Jiménez ran into injury issues. Smith-Shawver has shown promise, posting a 3.77 ERA across limited innings, but health and command have kept him from fully taking off.
The takeaway? Overslot picks are inherently risky.
You’re paying a premium for upside, often tied to a player’s college commitment or dual-threat potential. But the track record shows that upside doesn’t always translate.
Why Essenburg Might Be Different
Despite that history, Essenburg brings a different kind of intrigue. Not only does he have the physical tools, but he also fits a mold the Braves have had success with before.
Think Austin Riley. Think Michael Harris II.
Both were viewed by some teams as pitchers, but Atlanta saw their offensive potential and developed them into everyday contributors-stars, even.
Essenburg could follow that path. He’s aggressive at the plate, which can be a double-edged sword, but it also hints at his power ceiling. Defensively, his arm strength is a real asset, and while he’s still raw, the Braves have shown they know how to develop this type of player.
He hasn’t debuted in pro ball yet, so 2026 will be fans’ first real glimpse of what he can do. And while it’s unfair to expect him to immediately deliver on that $1.2 million bonus, the tools are there. The Braves clearly believe in him enough to pay well above slot and forgo the chance to let him head to college as a two-way player.
The Bottom Line
Atlanta’s recent track record with overslot picks hasn’t been great, but Conor Essenburg represents a fresh opportunity to flip the script. He’s young, toolsy, and fits the mold of past Braves success stories. If he can develop into the kind of impact bat the team believes he can be, he’ll be worth every penny-and then some.
For now, the spotlight is on him as he begins his professional journey. The Braves made a bet. Now it’s up to Essenburg to prove them right.