The Braves are down to the last stretch of their run through a crowded postseason picture, and their next stop could shake up the AL West race in a major way.
After an off day on Thursday, they head to Houston for three games against the Astros, then finish the regular season with a pair of series against non-contenders. Their own spot looks close to locked in - they’ve nearly clinched a playoff berth, and while they could technically lose the division lead, that doesn’t look likely.
Houston, though, is in a much tighter spot. The Astros sit at 77-76, one game ahead of the Rangers in the division race. There’s also a path where the AL playoff field includes only the AL West winner, with the final spot going to the AL Central runner-up, since the Rangers are two games behind the last Wild Card position.
That makes this weekend’s series carry real weight. The Braves are only favored in the opener, and even there, just barely.
After this set, the Astros finish with a road trip that includes two games in Seattle and four in Sacramento. On a game-by-game basis, they’re projected to land somewhere in the 4-6 wins range over their final nine.
The Rangers are in a similar spot from a projection standpoint, with a weekend series at home against the Blue Jays, then the Mets coming in, before they close the year in Minnesota. Their odds also point to a 4-6 finish over the last nine, though they’re a touch better than Houston’s.
So the Braves may end up holding a lot of the leverage here. A sweep would be a real hit to the Astros’ chances.
A sweep the other way could put the Rangers in the driver’s seat. And if Atlanta just splits or takes two of three, it still might matter - just not quite as dramatically.
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