Lane Thomas’ latest injury update puts the Braves in a rough spot at exactly the wrong time.
Atlanta initially announced that the outfielder was headed to the injured list, but didn’t say how long he might be out. Before Friday’s game, the Braves made it clear the absence could stretch at least a month, which would knock Thomas out of the NL Wild Card Series and the NLDS. For a team trying to chase its second World Series title of the decade, that’s a brutal development.
The timing softens the blow a little in the regular season. After Friday night’s comeback, the Braves pushed their division lead to five games, and because they already own the tiebreaker over the Phillies, that edge is effectively six games with 14 left to play.
The bigger issue is what comes next. Atlanta still trails the Dodgers by 3.5 games for the No. 2 seed in the National League heading into Saturday, so unless the Braves catch fire and Los Angeles slips, they’re headed for the No. 3 seed and a trip to the Wild Card Series.
That’s where Thomas’ absence becomes a real problem. The likely Wild Card opponent will be either the Diamondbacks or the Padres, and both clubs can throw a lot of left-handed pitching at Atlanta.
Thomas has been the Braves’ best hitter by wRC+ against lefties, and without him the lineup gets thinner fast. Along with Thomas, only Matt Olson, Michael Harris II, Ozzie Albies, and Ronald Acuña Jr. are above a 100 mark against left-handed pitching, and Olson is the only one above 110.
That matters because Atlanta has already had trouble in those matchups all season.
Arizona would bring a dangerous lefty in Eduardo Rodriguez, whose qualified ERA ranks sixth-lowest in MLB, and he would almost certainly get the Game 1 assignment. The Diamondbacks also have Brandyn Garcia, who has worked 43.1 innings with a 2.08 ERA and a 2.29 FIP out of the bullpen.
San Diego could be an even tougher draw. Robbie Ray would likely start in Game 2 or Game 3, and the Padres can also lean on left-handed relievers Adrián Morejón, Wandy Peralta, and Yuki Matsui.
Their long reliever, Kyle Hart, throws from the left side too. That kind of bullpen depth could make life miserable for an Atlanta lineup already missing its best answer to southpaws.
And if the Braves do get through the Wild Card Series, the path doesn’t get much friendlier. The Dodgers would be waiting with two left-handed aces in Tarik Skubal and Blake Snell, plus relievers Alex Vesia, Jack Dreyer, and Tanner Scott. Justin Wrobleski, an All-Star this year, is also a lefty, though recent struggles have left him without a clear role.
For Atlanta, the pressure now falls on the platoon group. Maurcio Dubón in left field and Ha-Seong Kim at shortstop will have to handle left-handed pitching much better, and quickly. If they don’t, opponents will have a clean path to attack the Braves’ weak spot and send them home early.
In Other News...
Braves Catch A Huge Opening After Phillies Change Saturday Plans
Saturdays pitching picture shifted quickly when Phillies manager Don Mattingly said Jess Luzardo would be scratched from his start against the Braves because of shoulder stiffness. Philadelphia has not named the replacement yet, but it has already signaled it will go with an opener, which changes the tone of a game that had been set up around a more traditional starter.
For Atlanta, the timing is a welcome break in what should still be a tight divisional test. A bullpen-led approach can turn a familiar matchup into a longer, more unpredictable night, and it gives the Braves a chance to adjust their game plan before first pitch once the Phillies reveal how they want to cover the innings. [Read more 🡒]
Phillies Suddenly Change Plans For A Braves Game That Matters
The Phillies had lined up Jesus Luzardo to take the ball in an upcoming game against the Braves, but that plan changed quickly when the left-hander was scratched because of stiffness in his left shoulder, according to manager Don Mattingly. Philadelphia will turn the matchup into a bullpen game instead, a notable adjustment in a series where every start can matter with Atlanta still tracking the shape of the race around it.
Luzardo has been one of the Phillies most important pitchers this season, working deep into games and showing why the club moved to secure him with a five-year extension. For now, the hope is that the setback costs him only a few days, with the team planning to give him extra rest before bringing him back into the rotation. [Read more 🡒]
Braves Fans Wanted This Deadline Arm And It Looks Worse By The Week
When the trade deadline passed, plenty of Braves fans had their eyes on Casey Mize as a possible rotation fix, but Atlanta never made the move and the former Tigers right-hander instead landed with the Padres. In the weeks since, the comparison has tilted sharply in the Braves favor, with Mize struggling to settle in San Diego while Tyler Mahle has given Atlanta the kind of dependable work it wanted in the rotation.
For a front office that gets graded on the margins this time of year, this has become one of those decisions that looks better with every start. Alex Anthopoulos passed on a pitcher many in Atlanta wanted, and the early returns suggest the Braves may have been right to stay patient rather than chase a deadline name that has not translated well so far. [Read more 🡒]