The Braves are about to lose a steady arm at the worst possible time. Left-hander Martín Pérez is headed to the 15-day injured list with lower back inflammation, according to Jesús Cano of The Athletic, and the corresponding move has not yet been made public.
The timing stings. Pérez just worked on Sunday, throwing 4 1/3 innings across 79 pitches, and there was no obvious sign that something was wrong. Atlanta can backdate the IL move to Monday, but that still knocks him out for the Wild Card round and the NLDS roster.
For much of the season, Pérez has been one of the club’s rotation fixtures. He’s made 26 starts and four relief appearances, posting a 3.04 ERA over 142 innings.
The strikeout and walk numbers haven’t been especially sharp - a 17.1% strikeout rate and 10.4% walk rate are both below league average - but he’s helped himself with a 45.7% ground-ball rate and a knack for limiting damage. He’s also gotten some good fortune in the run prevention department, with a .253 batting average on balls in play and a 79.7% strand rate, though the underlying indicators suggest some regression may be coming.
His 4.31 FIP and 4.91 SIERA point that way, even if he’s still been a valuable piece of the staff. Statcast also shows some quality contact management, with Pérez in the 90th percentile in barrel rate among qualified pitchers, 75th in hard-hit rate and 67th in average exit velocity.
Atlanta’s rotation picture was already messy beyond the top two. Chris Sale and Tyler Mahle are locked into two spots, but after that the options are far less settled.
Grant Holmes has a 3.47 ERA, though his 4.66 FIP and 4.72 SIERA look a lot like Pérez’s peripherals. JR Ritchie currently holds a rotation spot, but he’s carrying a 4.79 ERA.
AJ Smith-Shawver has a 6.43 ERA this season and is working out of the bullpen. Bryce Elder and Reynaldo López are both trying to return from IL stints, while Hurston Waldrep, Spencer Schwellenbach and Spencer Strider are also on the injured list and not expected back this year.
In the immediate term, Atlanta can probably absorb the loss. The final regular-season games don’t carry much weight, and the Braves technically still have a shot at catching the Dodgers for a first-round bye.
That would require Atlanta to win its final four games while Los Angeles loses its final four, so it’s an extremely long shot. Otherwise, the club can line up Sale, Mahle and Holmes for a best-of-three Wild Card series.
The bigger issue comes if Atlanta advances to the NLDS. At that point, a fourth starter could matter, and Pérez would have been in the mix.
Without him, the Braves may need to piece things together with Ritchie, López, Elder, Smith-Shawver or some other creative setup. If the club makes it to the NLCS and Pérez is healthy again, he could be folded back into the plan.
If not, Atlanta will have to keep improvising.
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The good news for the Braves is that the situation did not turn into something far worse, and the team was able to keep pushing toward a needed win. Atlanta edged the Reds 3-2 in 10 innings behind a strong outing from Chris Sale, a result that helped soften the anxiety from Acuas scare and kept the night focused on a hard-earned victory instead of an injury update. [Read more 🡒]