The NL East didn’t arrive at the finish line the way anyone expected, but it’s setting up for the kind of late-season showdown that feels inevitable now.
Atlanta and Philadelphia have spent enough time looking like the class of the division to make this race feel less like a surprise and more like a correction. The Braves burst out to a 45-21 start and then hit a wall, going 31-34 since. The Phillies have lived through their own swingy season, stumbling to a 9-19 start that got manager Rob Thomson fired before ripping off a 36-20 May and June and adding a recent nine-game winning streak.
So here they are, still the two teams standing in the way of each other.
The Mets, for all their early noise, have basically vanished from the picture. That leaves the Braves and Phillies to settle things over the final five weeks, with the race likely coming down to the seven head-to-head games left on the schedule: four in Atlanta from Sept. 4-7 and three in Philadelphia from Sept. 11-13.
That matchup feels right because these clubs are built in a few of the same ways. Both lineups lean on a handful of core bats.
Both clubs live on the home run, with each ranking in the top 11 in baseball in homers. And neither side is exactly patient at the plate, as both sit in the bottom 10 in on-base percentage.
On the mound, the Phillies get plenty of attention for their top trio of Cristopher Sanchez (16-4, 2.62 ERA), Zach Wheeler (10-4, 2.92) and Jesus Luzardo (11-5, 3.35). But once you get past those three, Philadelphia’s rotation picture thins out, and the team’s starter ERA sits at 3.97, good for 12th in the majors. Atlanta, despite all its pitching injuries, has actually been better there at 3.72, seventh in baseball.
The bullpen gap has been even clearer. The Braves were supposed to have the edge there, and they’ve backed that up with the fourth-best reliever ERA in the league at 3.44. The Phillies, meanwhile, are 21st at 4.31.
Even with Philadelphia rolling lately, Atlanta still looks strong on paper. The bigger question is whether the Braves can shake off their current slump at the plate before the Phillies arrive in town in a week and a half.
There is still some cushion. Atlanta is up by three and a half games, which is a far cry from the 9.5-game lead it held just over a week ago, but it’s enough to keep the Braves in control for now.
The bigger concern for Atlanta is the playoff picture around the division race. Baseball Reference gives the Braves a 99.1% chance to reach the postseason, so the real issue isn’t getting in.
It’s getting the best possible path once they’re there. Their chance at a postseason bye into the divisional round has dropped to 15.2%, with the Braves now four games behind the Dodgers and five behind the Brewers.
They’re also just one game better than the Cubs, which means Atlanta could easily end up outside the top NL wild-card spot and be forced into a road wild-card series if it doesn’t hold off Philadelphia.
The Phillies are chasing a third straight NL East title. The Braves are trying to win their first postseason series since their 2021 World Series run. The standings say there’s still time for more twists, and this final stretch gives Atlanta plenty of room for the mood to swing again, for better or worse, before this thing is over.
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