The Braves have spent most of the season on top of the NL East, but the gap has never felt settled for long. Atlanta’s last day outside first place was April 7, when the club sat at 7-5 and a half-game back. Since then, the Braves have kept the pole position more often than not - and yet this race keeps snapping back into view.
That’s what makes this September stretch so compelling. Atlanta and Philadelphia have taken turns looking like the better team, often at completely different times.
The Braves built a 9 ½-game cushion after beating the Pirates on June 7 to improve to 45-21, only to go 4-13 the rest of that month. While Atlanta stumbled, the Phillies were surging after a rough start that included a 9-19 record and a managerial change.
Philadelphia went 18-10 in May and 18-9 in June, slicing the Braves’ lead to 2 ½ games by July and then to two games by the All-Star break.
Atlanta answered after the break, and for a while the division looked like it might finally be slipping away. The Phillies lost eight of their last nine in July, while the Braves won 10 of 15 to close the month and finished an eight-game winning streak around the turn of the calendar.
Atlanta was 70-45 after that run. Then came another push: three wins in four games through Aug. 12, and the Braves were back up 9 ½ games.
That looked decisive.
Then the floor dropped out again. The Braves have lost seven of their last nine games before winning Sunday night, while the Phillies have stayed hot throughout that same span.
Philadelphia’s nine-game winning streak has cut Atlanta’s lead to three games. The Phillies went 9-15 in July, but they’ve gone 16-5 in August.
In a season where so many playoff teams have hovered around average, that kind of swing keeps the NL East alive. This is the race that could still go to the wire.
Both clubs have had to navigate injuries, and Atlanta’s pitching staff has taken the bigger hit. Spencer Schwellenbach is still being eyed for a return before the end of the season, though his recovery from elbow surgery has not gone smoothly.
Reynaldo López, back from a knee injury, just threw four innings in Triple-A on a rehab assignment and should be back soon. Spencer Strider is out for the year.
In the bullpen, Robert Suarez is working his way back from an elbow injury. There’s uncertainty there, but also the possibility of reinforcements.
The schedule doesn’t exactly offer much breathing room, either. The Braves have the fourth-hardest remaining slate, with opponents carrying a .521 winning percentage.
The Phillies aren’t far behind at seventh-hardest at .519. Philadelphia heads west this week for stops in Seattle and Anaheim, then finishes the trip in Arizona before coming home to face Atlanta.
The Braves, meanwhile, are set to host the Dodgers before a series with the Rockies.
The games that really matter are the ones head-to-head. Philadelphia hosts Atlanta in a four-game set from Friday, Sept. 4 through Monday, Sept.
- Then the Phillies come back to Atlanta for another three-game series from Friday, Sept. 11 through Sunday, Sept.
- Those seven matchups could decide the division.
Atlanta also has a big edge already in the season series, sitting at 5-1 against the Phillies. That means the Braves should hold the tiebreaker unless they get badly beaten in the remaining games.
For now, the Braves are still the favorites. SportsLine gives Atlanta a 78.1% chance to win the division, with Philadelphia at 21.7%.
Those projections have the Braves finishing with 92 wins and the Phillies with 89. BetMGM lists Atlanta at -295 to win the NL East, with Philadelphia at +230.
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