The Braves have spent much of this season building something they didn’t have in the spring: rotation depth that could matter in October.
With 17 games left and a four-game cushion in the National League East, Atlanta is in position to get back to the postseason. If the bracket were set Tuesday, the Braves would open against the Arizona Diamondbacks in the National League Wild Card Series, with the Los Angeles Dodgers waiting in the National League Division Series for the winner.
That’s where the rotation picture starts to get interesting. Bryce Elder is expected to miss three to four weeks after arthroscopic surgery on his right knee, so the Braves will have to keep leaning on Chris Sale, Tyler Mahle, Grant Holmes, AJ Smith-Shawver, Martín Pérez and Reynaldo López as they head toward October. López is slated to come off the injured list and start Wednesday against Tampa Bay.
The easy call for a Game 1 starter is Sale. At 37, he’s still pitching like one of the game’s best arms, and he’s put himself squarely in the Cy Young conversation.
In 25 starts, he’s 14-9 with a 2.10 ERA over 150 innings. He also hasn’t worked in the postseason since the 2021 American League Championship Series with the Boston Red Sox, after back issues kept him out of Atlanta’s 2024 Wild Card Series against the San Diego Padres.
Even so, he looks like the guy who gives the Braves their best shot to grab the opener.
After that, Walt Weiss has room to maneuver.
Mahle, brought in at the trade deadline, has made a quick impact. He’s been excellent in six starts for Atlanta, putting up a 1.24 ERA, and he’s already become one of the club’s most important pickups.
If Sale takes Game 1, the Braves could go in a couple different directions for Game 2. Holmes and López could be combined there, which would leave Mahle available for a decisive Game 3 or even Game 1 of the NLDS.
If Sale loses the opener, Mahle becomes the cleanest choice to try to get Atlanta back on level ground.
Smith-Shawver’s recent stretch makes his postseason role less certain. He gave up four runs in 3.1 innings in Tuesday’s loss to Tampa Bay, and since returning to Atlanta’s rotation on Aug. 19, he’s worked to an 8.64 ERA across four starts.
In that span, he’s allowed 16 earned runs on 21 hits and 11 walks. Because of that, the Braves could end up using him out of the bullpen, if he’s on the roster at all.
Pérez is another name in the mix, though in a short series he may fit better as a reliever than as a starter.
The setup changes again if Atlanta gets deeper into the bracket. In the NLDS and beyond, the Braves could lean heavily on Sale and Mahle, using the built-in off days to bring them back on regular or near-regular rest. That would give Weiss freedom to use Holmes and the other starters in different ways, whether that means starting, providing bulk innings or matching up out of the bullpen.
And whichever path Atlanta takes, the back end should be in good shape. Raisel Iglesias and Robert Suárez could be a powerful late-inning duo, though Suárez still has to face live hitters and finish a rehab assignment before he returns. Didier Fuentes, Dylan Lee and Brent Suter also give the Braves more than enough relief help.
Atlanta sits as the National League’s No. 3 seed behind the Los Angeles Dodgers, who are 87-57, and the Milwaukee Brewers, who are 89-56. The Braves look equipped for a deep run, but the Wild Card Series offers almost no room to breathe. They already felt that pressure in their 2024 Wild Card Series loss to the Padres, a club now trailing the Diamondbacks by 0.5 games for the third Wild Card spot.
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The move also gives the Braves some flexibility with Bryce Elder, who will shift to the bullpen for the moment while he works through a minor knee issue. Elder is not expected to land on the injured list, but Atlanta is clearly juggling its rotation carefully as it tries to manage innings and stay healthy while Lopez gets back into the mix. [Read more 🡒]