ATLANTA -- The Braves are heading into October with a few moving parts, and the most interesting ones are coming in the bullpen and the back end of the rotation.
AJ Smith-Shawver is one of the biggest wild cards. He may not be the answer as a postseason starter, at least not based on what he’s shown so far.
He has made just 20 career starts, including five this season, and he’s still a little more than a year removed from Tommy John surgery. That’s a lot to ask of a young arm trying to become a dependable October option.
But there’s a different lane that makes sense: the bullpen.
The case for Smith-Shawver in relief starts with how he’s handled hitters the first time through a game. Opponents have hit .162 with a .608 OPS against him in those situations, and he owns a 1.80 ERA in the first inning of his five starts this year.
The concern is the 23.5 percent whiff rate. Even so, the four-seam and splitter combination looks intriguing for one-inning bursts.
If the Braves want to see what that role might look like, they could at least give him a couple of relief appearances before the regular season ends. He has also gotten better swings-and-misses in the first inning, where opponents have whiffed on 31.6 percent of their swings against him.
That possibility matters because the Braves are also waiting on Robert Suarez. If he gets back before the end of the regular season, Atlanta’s bullpen suddenly looks like a real October weapon.
Pair Suarez with Raisel Iglesias, Dylan Lee and Didier Fuentes, and the Braves could roll into the postseason with one of the strongest relief foursomes around. Lee helped ease some of the recent concern by tossing a scoreless inning on Sunday, and the thought is that he may have been tipping pitches before he previously believed.
Resting him properly over the final stretch could be the key to keeping him sharp when the games matter most.
There’s another ripple effect there, too. If Smith-Shawver moves to the bullpen, that could lighten Lee’s workload and give the Braves some insurance in case Suarez hits a snag.
The rotation picture is starting to come into focus as well. Tyler Mahle has been excellent since joining Atlanta, posting a 1.24 ERA through six starts.
His latest outing may have been his most revealing yet: six scoreless innings in Sunday’s win over the Phillies, against a legitimate lineup in a playoff-style setting. After five months of searching, the Braves may finally have their Game 2 starter.
Grant Holmes made a strong case of his own Monday, when he threw six scoreless innings and struck out six against the Phillies. With Chris Sale and Mahle not likely needed during the regular season’s final weekend, they would appear set to start the first two games of a Wild Card Series. Bryce Elder will need about three weeks to recover from knee surgery, which could leave a Holmes/Martín Pérez piggyback as the best answer for Game 3.
Before Wednesday night’s game, there was also some thought that Reynaldo López could work as an opener and then hand things off for three to four innings. But he’ll need to pitch much better over the next few weeks to force his way into the postseason mix.
The standings add another layer. The Braves entered Thursday four games behind the Dodgers in the race for the second of the NL’s two postseason byes.
That points toward a Wild Card Series against either the Padres or the D-backs, a three-day sprint that would put the bullpen under the microscope if it goes the distance. Atlanta has the kind of relief depth that can handle that, especially if Suarez returns to form.
Iglesias, Suarez, Lee and Fuentes give the Braves a formidable core. Dylan Dodd adds another arm, and Smith-Shawver could join that group as well. Dodd gave up two home runs on Sunday, but by either the eye test or the numbers, he’s been one of the team’s best arms all year.
There’s also the matter of Matt Olson, whose bat has cooled off badly. He left an Aug. 7 loss at Yankee Stadium carrying a .900 OPS, his highest mark since June 12. Since then, in 29 games, he has hit .167 with a team-worst .533 OPS among qualified players and a 30 percent strikeout rate.
In Other News...
Braves Add Catching Depth As Their October Plan Gets More Interesting
The Braves added a familiar type of late-season insurance on Sept. 1, signing catcher Eric Haase to a minor league contract and sending him to their Florida complex. It is the kind of move contending clubs often make when the calendar flips into September, especially with postseason roster flexibility in play and every position on the bench carrying a little more weight.
Haase gives Atlanta another experienced option behind the plate and a bat with some pop, even if his profile has long come with plenty of swing-and-miss. He has already been with three organizations this season, including the Giants and White Sox, while the Braves still appear set to lean on Drake Baldwin and Sean Murphy as their catching duo for now, leaving Haase as a depth piece who could become more relevant if the October picture shifts. [Read more 🡒]
Braves Outfield Uncertainty May Not Last As New Internal Options Emerge
The Braves outfield picture has been murky enough that it has become one of the easier roster questions to circle on the calendar. Between the players already under contract and the free agents in the mix, the short-term answer is still hazy, but the organization is not short on internal candidates who could eventually help smooth it out. Eric Hartman, AJ Gracia, Carter Beck and Owen Carey all stand out as names worth tracking, and each brings a different kind of fit for the outfield or designated hitter picture.
What makes the situation more interesting is the timeline. Atlanta may not need all of those answers right away, but the next year and a half could be enough for one or more of these prospects to push into real consideration. If even a couple of them keep trending upward, the Braves current uncertainty in the grass could look a lot less like a long-term problem and more like a temporary bridge to the next wave of homegrown depth. [Read more 🡒]
Braves Just Took Another Hit To Their Pitching Depth
The Braves lost another arm from their pitching inventory when the Giants claimed right-hander Duncan Davitt off waivers and sent him to Triple-A Sacramento. San Francisco cleared a spot on its 40-man roster by designating Spencer Bivens for assignment, while Atlanta is still trying to manage its own staff with Bryce Elder landing on the injured list and Reynaldo Lpez returning from the injured list.
For a club trying to stay geared toward October, every piece of depth matters, and Davitt had at least given the Braves another option to keep on hand. The move comes as Atlanta continues shuffling arms to cover the present while keeping an eye on the postseason, leaving the organization with one fewer fallback as the stretch run tightens. [Read more 🡒]