Chris Sale’s 2025: Still Elite, Still Unpredictable - And Still a Key Piece for the Braves
When the Braves traded for Chris Sale ahead of the 2024 season, they were rolling the dice on a lefty with a Hall of Fame-caliber peak and a medical file that reads like a novel. The gamble paid off in a big way that year.
Sale was lights-out, healthy, and dominant - a throwback to his prime seasons in Chicago and Boston. But in 2025, the story took a more familiar turn: the performance was still there, but so was the injury bug.
And, in true Chris Sale fashion, it wasn’t your run-of-the-mill arm issue.
Let’s dig into the highs, the lows, and what it all means for the Braves moving forward.
How the Braves Got Here
Rewind to the 2023-24 offseason. Atlanta shipped infielder Vaughn Grissom to Boston in exchange for Sale, banking on the idea that the lanky lefty could stay healthy and give them a top-tier arm to round out a rotation that already featured Max Fried, Spencer Strider, and Charlie Morton.
At the time, Sale had just logged 102 2/3 innings - his most in three seasons - after a run of injuries that included Tommy John surgery, a fractured pinkie, and a rib cage issue. The Braves saw enough to believe a resurgence was possible.
And in 2024, they got more than they bargained for: 6.4 fWAR, 177 2/3 innings, and the best FIP- of his career. He was back, at least for a season, and Atlanta entered 2025 with Sale penciled in as the ace.
The expectations? High.
But also realistic. Projections like ZiPS had him around 3.3 WAR in under 140 innings - essentially elite production, just with the usual baked-in risk of missed time.
What Actually Happened in 2025
Sale delivered another strong season - just not the uninterrupted dominance Braves fans saw the year before. He finished with 3.6 fWAR in 125 2/3 innings, posting a 61/67/73 ERA-/FIP-/xFIP- line. That’s a tick down from 2024, but still comfortably above average, and well in line with what projections had forecasted.
But of course, it wouldn’t be a Chris Sale season without something weird happening. This time, it was a rib fracture - not from pitching, but from diving for a ball while holding a 5-0 lead over the Mets in the ninth inning.
The result? Two months on the shelf and a significant chunk of the season lost.
Even so, when Sale was on the mound, he looked like himself. Before the injury, he was at 60/67/78 - strong numbers across the board.
After returning, he posted a 64/64/58 line, showing no real signs of rust or lingering issues. If anything, he looked sharper in some areas.
What Went Right
Let’s start with the obvious: when healthy, Sale was still a problem for opposing hitters.
One of the most notable adjustments came early in the season, when he raised his arm slot slightly. The shift became visible in May, and it wasn’t just cosmetic - it brought results.
After a rough April, where he posted a 114/84/84 line and took some lumps from the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, Sale found his groove. The adjustment coincided with a string of dominant outings that reminded everyone exactly why he’s a former Cy Young winner.
On September 16, he delivered one of his best performances of the year: eight shutout innings, nine strikeouts, no walks, and barely a whiff of trouble against the Nationals. The only baserunners to get past first did so on a wild pitch or stolen base. It was vintage Sale - efficient, overpowering, and in complete command.
Most importantly, he avoided any pitching-related injuries. His arm held up.
His stuff was sharp. And he showed that, even at this stage of his career, he’s still capable of being one of the most effective starters in the game.
What Went Wrong
In a word: June.
That’s when the Braves’ rotation started falling apart, and Sale joined the list - not because of elbow soreness or shoulder fatigue, but because he dove for a soft grounder and cracked his ribs. It was peak Chris Sale: the guy who missed time in the past for a broken pinkie on a line drive and a fractured rib from throwing a bullpen session too hard just added another bizarre chapter to his injury history.
At the time of the injury, Sale was dealing. Over his previous nine starts, he had a 28/56/71 line - elite-level production.
He was the third Braves starter to hit the IL in that stretch, and unfortunately, not the last. The rotation was in freefall, and Sale’s absence was a big part of why Atlanta missed the postseason for the first time in seven years.
There were also some early-season hiccups. In his April 8 start against the Phillies, he got tagged by Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos, giving up a flurry of hits and a homer in a game the Braves eventually won 7-5.
It was the first of three straight outings where he didn’t make it through the fifth inning. While not disastrous, those starts hinted that something wasn’t quite right - and may have prompted the eventual arm-slot tweak.
The 2026 Outlook
The Braves aren’t shying away from running it back with Sale. They picked up his $18 million club option for 2026 - a no-brainer given the value he’s provided when healthy. Sale, for his part, has made it clear he still loves to compete and believes he’s got more left in the tank.
Projections are cautiously optimistic. Steamer pegs him for over 4 WAR in 169 innings, while ZiPS is a bit more conservative at 2.9 WAR in 125 innings.
Both agree: if he’s on the mound, he’s still a frontline starter. The only real question is whether he can stay there.
And that’s the Chris Sale experience in a nutshell. The talent?
Undeniable. The results?
Still excellent. The health?
Well… that’s always the wildcard.
But if the Braves can get anything close to a full season from him in 2026, they’ll have one of the most efficient, high-upside arms in the league anchoring their rotation - and a shot to bounce right back into the postseason picture.