Jim Bowden’s new free-agent projections point to a starting pitching market that could matter a lot for the Braves this winter.
Bowden of The Athletic laid out contract guesses for the top 40 free agents, and the starting pitcher group stands out as the deepest part of the class. That should be welcome news in Atlanta, where the rotation appears to need at least two additions this offseason because of all the uncertainty around it.
At the very top, Tarik Skubal is the dream name, but that’s not a realistic path for the Braves. Freddy Peralta, projected at five years and $140 million, belongs in the same bucket. Michael King, at four years and $118 million, also sounds like a stretch for Atlanta.
After that, though, the list opens up.
Trevor Rogers at three years, $64 million would be a bargain in this market, and the projection comes with a strong endorsement. “I think he’s the second-best starting pitcher in this entire free agent class.”
Clay Holmes on a two-year, $44 million deal could also make sense for the Braves, especially with the connection to his former pitching coach, Jeremy Hefner. That kind of short-term fit would line up with how Atlanta often likes to operate.
There are a few names on Bowden’s list that feel less likely to end up in Atlanta. Casey Mize, projected at three years and $54 million, and Robbie Ray, projected at two years and $45 million, are two pitchers the Braves could have pursued at the trade deadline and passed on. Given how they performed with their new teams, it does not seem likely Atlanta would circle back and pay them around $20 million a year over multiple seasons.
On the other hand, Kevin Gausman at one year and $22 million or Shane Bieber at one year and $20 million fits the Braves’ usual style better. Short-term deals with upside? That’s the kind of lane Atlanta tends to live in.
A few other projected prices on Bowden’s list: Nick Martinez at two years, $48 million; Foster Griffin at three years, $67 million; Kaima Taira at three years, $30 million; Hiromi Itoh at two years, $20 million; Shota Imanaga at three years, $69 million.
One name missing from the projections stood out: Tyler Mahle. He would seem to be a better option than several pitchers on the list, and the Braves are hoping to keep him this offseason.
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