After Saturday’s loss to the Phillies, the Braves still hold a four-game cushion in the NL East, and that alone would be enough to make plenty of teams feel pretty good about their September. Atlanta’s season has already come a long way from last year’s disaster, but the ride has been bumpy enough that confidence around this club is still easy to find in short supply.
What’s looming now is not just the standings, but the trail of decisions that helped shape this moment. Some have worked out well. Others are hanging over the Braves as the final month begins.
The most obvious miss was the rotation depth issue. Atlanta knew last offseason that the starting staff needed help, but the club passed on the prices.
That choice has mattered all year, especially during the stretches when the rotation has been shaky and unable to work deep into games. The bullpen has had to absorb the extra burden, and that has not been a clean fix.
If the Braves wind up relying on Martin Perez, Grant Holmes, and/or Bryce Elder in meaningful playoff games in 2026, that’s a scary thought.
At the same time, the Braves deserve credit for the way they handled Chris Sale. The trade for him, which cost them Vaughn Grissom, already looks like a franchise-altering win, especially with Sale back to pitching like a perennial Cy Young contender.
But the bigger move was what came after: Atlanta extended him twice. That leaves Sale under team control through at least 2027, with a $30 million club option for 2028, and it is the reason he is still in place to carry this team now.
The deadline addition of Tyler Mahle has also given Atlanta more than most people expected. That deal drew a muted reaction at the time, and the reports that the Braves nearly landed Jacob deGrom didn’t exactly help the mood.
Still, Mahle has delivered real value. In five starts since the trade, he has a 1.48 ERA with 32 strikeouts in 30.1 innings.
His 2.87 FIP suggests the performance isn’t just a fluke, and he’s given the Braves a legitimate No. 2 starter behind Sale.
Then there’s Austin Riley, whose contract makes him hard to move out of the lineup even as the slump drags on. He’s been getting punished by sliders again, and his timing against fastballs has been all over the place.
There have been small signs of progress over the last month, but it has mostly been a back-and-forth process. In a perfect world, Atlanta could give him more time away from the pressure and let him reset or work on his swing.
That’s not really an option now. The extension the Braves gave him in 2022 has made him essentially unbenchable, so unless they find a team willing to take him and believe they can fix him, Riley is going to keep playing third base.
Shortstop is another spot where the Braves are paying for a long-running lack of investment. Mauricio Dubon has mattered far more than he should have because Ha-Seong Kim has been so bad as the shortstop answer.
Dubon’s bat can be frustrating, but his stability at short has been important. Even so, he’s better suited to being a super utility piece who can move around the field, and Atlanta hasn’t been able to use him that way enough.
Since Dansby Swanson left, the Braves haven’t solved the position through free agency, the trade market, or player development, and that failure has been building for years.
In Other News...
Braves Have An October Problem They Cant Keep Ignoring
The ABS challenge system has become one more thing the Braves have had to sort through in 2026, and so far it has not been a strength. Atlanta has posted the lowest overturn rate in the league while also challenging fewer pitches than most teams, a combination that suggests the club is leaving value on the table with a system that can swing a game in a hurry.
What stands out is not just the results, but the hesitation behind them. The Braves have been reluctant to pull the trigger on pitches that fit the reasonable standard, and players such as Austin Riley and Michael Harris II have already pointed to the adjustment as a real issue. With October looming, the concern is less about whether the rule is here to stay and more about whether Atlanta can get comfortable enough with it before the games matter most. [Read more 🡒]
AJ Smith-Shawver Is Putting Braves In A Tough Rotation Spot
AJ Smith-Shawvers return to the Braves rotation was supposed to be one of the more encouraging developments of the second half, a young arm coming back from Tommy John surgery and giving Atlanta a chance to see how he fit into the future. Instead, the right-hander has been thrown right back into the kind of evaluation mode that comes with a post-surgery comeback, with his first MLB start nearly a year after the procedure followed by a stretch that has left the club searching for more consistency from him.
The issue has been less about merely taking the ball and more about how he is getting outs, since Smith-Shawver has had trouble missing bats and has especially needed better results with his sinker and slider. Atlanta still has reason to hope the stuff sharpens up, because the Braves would love for him to settle into the role they envisioned when he returned, but right now the rotation picture is a little messier than they probably expected. [Read more 🡒]
Braves Prospect Night Had One Brutal Collapse Fans Will Want Explained
The Braves farm system had a night full of mixed results, but the most promising stretch came in Columbus, where the Clingstones stayed in a tense extra-inning game with Pensacola long enough to make things interesting. Garrett Baumann got his second Triple-A start for Gwinnett, while Rome sent Aiven Cabral to the mound for five innings, and both affiliates were part of a slate that had more than its share of familiar developmental ups and downs.
Columbus looked poised to turn its matchup into a grinder before the late innings went sideways in a way that will nag at anyone tracking the system. The Clingstones got a huge swing from John Gil to help them claw back into it, but the bullpen could not finish the job in the 10th, turning what had been a competitive night into a frustrating finish. Gwinnett had its own bright spot in Maverick Handleys homer, but the Stripers still dropped a 9-3 decision to Charlotte, leaving the Braves with plenty to sort through after another uneven night on the farm. [Read more 🡒]