Major League Baseball is stepping into a new era this season, rolling out the automated ball-strike system (ABS) in nearly every game. It's a seismic shift in how the strike zone is policed - and teams are already thinking strategically about how to make the most of it.
Here’s the deal: teams will get just two challenges on ball-strike calls over the first nine innings. That’s it.
And in a game where even the best umpires might miss a few calls, those two challenges are going to be precious. So, how do you use them wisely?
That’s the question every coaching staff is working to answer.
Veteran lefty Chris Sale seems to have a plan - one that echoes the mindset of a former Braves pitcher. He’s leaning on his catcher to be the eyes and ears on borderline calls, letting the guy behind the plate decide when it’s worth throwing the red flag.
And he’s not looking to burn those challenges early. The idea is to save them for the late innings, when a missed call could flip the game on its head.
From a pitcher’s perspective, the nightmare scenario is simple: you’ve got a hitter struck out, the ump misses the call, and the at-bat continues - or worse, the next pitch leaves the yard. That’s not just frustrating, it’s potentially game-changing.
And it’s not hypothetical. The Braves saw this exact situation play out twice last season.
One came on the Fourth of July, when Drake Baldwin took advantage of a missed third strike and went deep. The other was on September 26, when Matt Olson hit a home run after a borderline pitch - one Statcast called a ball - was ruled against the pitcher. In both cases, the Braves capitalized on calls that might’ve been overturned with ABS.
To put it in perspective, the Braves had 88 instances last season where a third strike was called a ball. Two of those turned into home runs.
That might not sound like a lot, but when you’re managing a 162-game season where every pitch can matter, those moments add up. If you challenged every one of those 88 calls, that would eat up about 27% of your total challenges - assuming you could spot every single one in real time, which is a tall order.
And that’s where the human element still plays a role. Even with ABS, the decision to challenge rests on the dugout or the catcher’s instincts.
And the odds of a successful overturn? Probably closer to 50/50 than anyone would like to admit.
That’s a coin flip - and a costly one if you’re wrong.
Now, let’s zoom out a bit. This conversation isn’t just about individual calls - it ties into how teams manage leverage, particularly late in games.
In a tight contest, challenging a missed third strike could be a no-brainer. But even earlier in the game, snagging an extra out could be the difference between a clean inning and a crooked number.
That’s why some teams, like the Braves, may not just be thinking in terms of leverage, but also inning and score - much like they already do when deciding which bullpen arm to deploy.
What we’re seeing is a new layer of strategy being added to the game. It’s not just about balls and strikes anymore - it’s about when to fight for them. And as teams start to figure out how to play this chess match with the ABS system, you can bet that catchers, pitchers, and managers will be working in lockstep to make every challenge count.