The Braves are rolling into their matchup with the Marlins with a lineup that looks a little different than expected, and with Sean Murphy, Lane Thomas and Mauricio Dubón all in the mix, Atlanta is trying to match its recent offensive surge against a Miami club that has had a much harder time scoring.
Atlanta enters the night tied with the Cubs for the most runs in MLB since the start of July, and the Braves also sit in the top seven in runs scored since the All-Star break. Miami, by contrast, ranks 20th in runs since the start of July and is in the bottom three in that same span since the break.
The pitching matchup adds another layer. The Braves are set to see Eury Pérez, whose four-seam fastball averages 98.1 MPH.
As a team, Atlanta has generally had trouble with the pitch, with only Baldwin, Olson and Harris performing well above league average against it. But there’s a twist here: the Braves have actually had some success against Pérez himself.
Seven regular starters own an OPS of .762 or better against him, though the sample is tiny, with each of those hitters sitting between five and eight at-bats. Baldwin has homered twice off Pérez, while Acuña and Albies have each gone deep once.
Atlanta also scored three earned runs against him back in April over 4.0 innings. The bigger question is whether that was a real sign of comfort or just a rough early stretch for Pérez, because he has been dominant lately, posting a 1.69 ERA over his last five starts.
The lineup choices are interesting too. Lane Thomas has already debuted for Atlanta, but with a right-hander on the mound, Yastrzemski might have been the more natural fit in left field based on the splits.
Thomas has struggled against righties and handled lefties much better, while Yastrzemski has been the reverse. Still, Atlanta went another direction.
Now that Ha-Seong Kim and Sean Murphy are back, the Braves have some new rotation decisions to make. Murphy is clearly the backup catcher, but backup catchers usually get more starts than backup shortstops.
Kim looked like he might settle in as the backup with Jim Jarvis playing well, but neither Jarvis nor Kim is starting at shortstop tonight. Dubón gets the nod there instead.
Murphy is back behind the plate and batting ninth, while Baldwin is in at designated hitter.
On the other side, Bryce Elder takes the ball for Atlanta, and his surface numbers since the start of July look fine at first glance with a 3.00 ERA. Dig a little deeper, though, and the warning lights flash.
He has a 7.14 FIP and a .208 BABIP against, numbers that make his run prevention look far less stable than the ERA suggests. The hope for Atlanta is that the luck doesn’t swing the other way against a Miami offense that has struggled to produce.
A few Marlins have seen Elder more than the rest. Xaiver Edwards has nine at-bats against him, Otto Lopez has eight and Kyle Stowers has seven.
Beyond those three, no Miami hitter has more than five at-bats off Elder. Lopez has been the toughest matchup, carrying a 1.056 OPS against him.
Edwards has also handled him well with a .989 OPS. Stowers has an .821 OPS against Elder thanks to a home run, though his average in the matchup is just .143.
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The deeper numbers tell a different story, though, and that is where the real concern for Atlanta sits. Elders performance has looked better than it may actually have been, with indicators suggesting the Braves have benefited from a mix of good fortune and solid defensive support behind him, leaving open the question of how sustainable this all is if the results start to swing the other way. [Read more 🡒]
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Suarez is expected to pitch again this season if the rehab keeps trending in the right direction, but the organization is making it clear there will be no shortcuts. For a club trying to line up healthy pitchers for the postseason, every step in his recovery matters, and the Braves seem intent on avoiding the kind of setback that would complicate the bigger picture. [Read more 🡒]