Braves May Have Found A Path For JR Ritchie But One Problem Remains

Despite a promising stint using opener strategy, JR Ritchie's persistent chase rate issue hints at a deeper challenge for the Braves' pitcher.

The Braves tried something different with JR Ritchie against the Cardinals, and for the most part, it paid off.

Atlanta went with an opener, a move the club hasn’t leaned on much in recent years and one that naturally invited skepticism given the questions already hanging over Ritchie’s ability to handle a rotation spot. Danny Young handled the opening frame, though not especially well, and then Ritchie took over and gave the Braves 4.1 quality innings. He allowed just one hit and one earned run.

By the numbers, that’s a win. Ritchie even called the outing a good step in the right direction.

But the bigger issue didn’t go away.

Ritchie’s problem has been clear for a while: the walks keep piling up, and that’s a tough way to survive in the majors. A 5.5 BB/9 rate isn’t going to hold up, and part of the reason it’s so high is that hitters simply aren’t chasing his pitches out of the zone.

That’s the real red flag. Ritchie sits in the bottom 10th-percentile in the majors in chase rate, which means he’s not getting enough swing-and-miss when he needs it.

If hitters aren’t tempted to expand the zone, he’s forced into a dangerous pattern of having to live in the strike zone just to get contact. That can work only for so long.

When he does try to get batters to chase, especially with his breaking pitches, they’re not biting. That raises the possibility that hitters may be picking up on something, which could help explain why some of his offerings, including the changeup and cutter, have performed much worse than others.

Whatever the reason, Ritchie has to find a way to make hitters respect more than one look. Until that happens, opponents can sit on the pitches they want and ignore the rest. And for a starter trying to stick in the big leagues, that’s a problem that won’t go away just because one outing went well.

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