Dylan Lee has done just about everything a reliever can do to earn a bigger payday, but the Braves may still decide to let the clock keep ticking.
That’s the tension here: Lee has been one of Atlanta’s most effective arms, yet his contract situation gives the Braves every reason to stay patient. He’s under team control through 2028, and after winning his arbitration case against the club in February, he’ll make $2.2 million in 2026. For a pitcher delivering this kind of production, that’s a bargain.
The numbers back it up. Fangraphs’ Dollars scale puts Lee at $13.7 million in value so far, making him the second most valuable pitcher on the Braves.
Through 44 games this season, he’s posted career bests in ERA at 1.47, FIP at 1.42, and bWAR at 1.8. The advanced metrics are just as loud: Lee ranks in the 97th percentile or better in xERA, xBA, chase%, whiff%, K%, BB%, hard-hit%, and overall pitching run value.
In plain terms, he’s been one of the best relievers in baseball. He just isn’t being paid like one.
That’s where the Braves’ long-running approach comes into play. Atlanta has invested in its bullpen before, and Alex Anthopoulos has handed out free-agent deals to relievers such as Pierce Johnson, Joe Jimenez, and Robert Suarez. But he has not extended a reliever who still had two or more years left on his contract, and Lee appears to fit right into that pattern.
If the Braves keep taking him year to year, Lee will keep getting raises through arbitration, but not the kind of long-term security top free-agent relievers usually land. And if Atlanta waits all the way to free agency, Lee would be 34 years old when he gets there.
At that point, he could be in position for a deal similar to the one Robert Suarez received. The question is whether the Braves would be the ones willing to make that bet on how he ages.
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The challenge is that the kind of arms Atlanta would want are getting harder to pry loose, especially if more clubs decide to hold rather than sell. Schwellenbach has started bullpen sessions in Florida after February surgery on his right elbow, and Smith-Shawver has been building back with rehab starts for Triple-A Gwinnett. For a team trying to stabilize a rotation that has wobbled for weeks, the next few days may say as much about patience as they do about aggression. [Read more 🡒]
Braves Rotation Crisis May Have Finally Forced The Front Office's Hand
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Owen Murphy was sent back to the minors, Elieser Hernandez was recalled and Martin Perez is expected to slide back into the rotation, but Atlanta is still staring at a thin list of internal answers. With AJ Smith-Shawver still working back from Tommy John surgery and Hurston Waldrep not yet trusted to hold a spot, the Braves may have to look outside the organization before the August 3 trade deadline if they want more stability on the mound. [Read more 🡒]