The Braves are rolling at the plate, and Walt Weiss is leaning into that strength again with his lineup against the Padres.
Atlanta has been the hottest offense in MLB since the start of July, leading the league in runs scored over that stretch and sitting third in wRC+. That surge has come from more than just Drake Baldwin and Austin Riley catching fire out of the All-Star break. The Braves have had twelve different players post a wRC+ at league average or better in July, including a pitcher who managed one at-bat.
Weiss has kept using matchups to put his hitters in the best possible spots, and he did it again against a left-handed starter. Baldwin is in the lineup as the DH, with Joey Bart behind the plate. That leaves some of the usual pregame questions answered, including the one around who gets the DH look and whether Baldwin would be the bat-only option.
Mauricio Dubón has the best track record among Atlanta’s starters against JP Sears, with twenty at-bats, an OPS of .900 and a home run. The rest of the group hasn’t had nearly the same success.
Austin Riley is at .633 OPS in the matchup, Matt Olson at .573, Michael Harris at .400 and Ozzie Albies at .282. Baldwin hasn’t had the chance to build a history against Sears, since he wasn’t in the lineup when Sears faced the Braves in June.
Jim Jarvis also has not faced him.
San Diego comes in swinging it well too. The Padres rank eighth in runs scored since the start of July and tenth in wRC+, and they’ve had eleven position players post a wRC+ of league average or better. Luis Campusano and Ty France have been the main drivers there.
Against Elder, though, the Padres don’t have much of a sample. No San Diego hitter has more than five at-bats against him, and he did not see them in the last series between the teams this season.
Jake Cronenworth has the most notable success, with a three-run HR in three at-bats. Jackson Merrill is one for two against Elder, and Fernando Tatis Jr. has two RBI in three at-bats.
So this one sets up as a matchup between two top ten offenses and two underperforming starters. It has the feel of a shootout, with first pitch set for 7:15 EDT.
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Braves May Have Found A Rotation Fix With One Major Catch
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The catch is in the contract, which makes any deal harder to sort out than a simple need-for-need swap. Recent trades for pitchers on similar deals have offered a rough guide, but they also highlight how quickly the asking price can drift depending on how a team values the player, leaving Atlanta and Kansas City with plenty to work through before anything gets close. [Read more 🡒]