The Braves have found two very different answers to the Automated Ball-Strike System, and the split is hard to miss.
On the batting side, Atlanta has been getting beaten up. The Braves sit 26th out of 30 teams in Net ABS Overturns at -14.3, and that’s translated to nearly a full run lost versus the expected rate, at -0.8 runs. Their challenge record is even uglier: 102 total challenges, 63 losses, 39 wins, and a 38 percent success rate that leaves them last in baseball.
A couple of names explain part of the picture, but not all of it. Lane Thomas and Mike Yastrzemski are the only Braves hitters in the Top 100 for Net ABS Overturns, with Thomas coming in at 4.3 and Yastrzemski at 2.1. The first “core” Braves batter doesn’t show up until an eight-way tie for 118th, where Drake Baldwin sits at 1.4 alongside seven others.
Thomas, of course, has barely been around long enough to change the team’s profile, and Yastrzemski has been in a platoon role all season. That makes the team-wide numbers look even rougher.
Jorge Mateo was the biggest drain while he was with Atlanta, challenging eight times and winning only once. Among players with at least 10 challenges this season, Matt Olson has a 20 percent success rate with five wins in 17 tries, while Dominic Smith is the standard-setter at 5-for-5.
Ronald Acuña Jr. has had the opposite experience. Nobody has beaten him on a challenge in nine chances at the plate this season. He still hasn’t turned into the ABS challenge force some might have expected, but the system has not found a way to take much from him either.
Behind the plate, though, Atlanta has been much sharper.
The Braves rank fourth in Net ABS Overturns at 17.5 and have won 76 of 125 challenges for a 61 percent success rate. That puts them in a tie for ninth in challenge winning percentage and gives them a very different story from the one their hitters are telling.
Drake Baldwin has been especially strong in that role. His 11.3 Net Overturns For puts him in the Top 10 among catchers, and he has won 30 of 46 challenges.
Sean Murphy has not had as many chances, but he is 6-for-10 so far, a 60 percent clip. The article also notes that Jonah Heim and Sandy Léon helped drive that success while they were behind the plate.
All told, Atlanta’s Total Net Overturn number is 10.7, which ranks 11th in baseball. That leaves the Braves in decent shape overall, even if the hitting side has been a mess.
And the broader league picture suggests this is still early enough that no one has cracked the code. The Kansas City Royals lead baseball in ABS Winning Percentage at 57 percent and Net ABS Overturns at 24.0, but that has not exactly transformed their season.
On the Total Net Overturns leaderboard, the 59-60 Tigers are first at 60.4, the Phillies are second with 47.0, the Royals are fourth overall, and the Diamondbacks are fifth. Among division leaders, Atlanta’s 10.7 is actually the highest Total Net Overturns mark, ahead of the Rays, Brewers and Dodgers.
For now, the Braves are living with a strange split: their hitters are getting buried by ABS, while their catchers are giving them a real edge. If Atlanta’s offense ever figures out the challenge game, that gap could matter a lot more.
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