The Braves’ rotation has become the kind of problem that can’t be wished away, and if Atlanta wants a real answer at the trade deadline, it has to chase a true frontline starter with team control.
Chris Sale has filled the ace role in 2024 and has pitched well since taking it on, but his postseason track record hasn’t been strong since 2018. Beyond him, the rest of the rotation doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. Even if Spencer Schwellenbach returns, the Braves are at the point where they need to do what it takes to win now, especially with the roster not getting younger anytime soon.
That leaves Atlanta looking at a very short list of controllable top-end starters who could actually be available: Joe Ryan and Logan Webb. Both are under team control, and both of their teams have signaled reluctance to move them. Still, neither club looks like a serious contender before these pitchers are deep into their 30s or headed for free agency, which is why the Braves would likely have to put together a package built around multiple highly rated prospects to get a deal done.
Ryan is the more straightforward power arm to evaluate. He’s 30, makes just over a million a month, and his remaining arbitration year in 2027 is expected to cost at least $25 million.
The Twins are not likely to pay that bill. On the mound, Ryan has been excellent: a 2.85 ERA, 2.83 FIP, 1.04 WHIP, 28% strikeout rate and 5.4% walk rate.
He leans on a 93.4 mph four-seamer that he throws 46% of the time, and the pitch plays up because of his extension. He also mixes in a sweeper, split, curve and slider about 10% each.
His heater, split and sinker all show heavy arm-side run, while the slider, curve and sweeper move hard glove-side. His only postseason start came in Game 4 of the 2023 ALDS, when he allowed one run on two hits in two innings.
A trade for Ryan would not come cheaply. The Twins would want a major league starter plus a pile of prospects.
A deal could include Holmes or Bryce Elder, along with Ritchie or Caminiti, Owen Murphy, Alex Lodise and a non-prospect or two. Atlanta might even be able to pry a non-prospect back from Minnesota with Ryan, but nothing exciting.
Webb is the bigger name and the tougher get. He’s 29, already familiar to Braves fans after throwing eight innings against Atlanta a couple of weeks ago, and he has dominated the Braves with a 5-1 record and a 2.32 ERA over 66 innings and 10 starts against them. Webb signed a five-year, $90 million extension in 2024 and won’t reach free agency until 2029.
This season, Webb has a 3.19 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 3.02 FIP over 100-plus innings, though his strikeout rate is down to a career-low 19.5% and his walk rate sits at 6.3%. He works as a groundball pitcher who trusts his defense, using a sinker 31% of the time, then a changeup at 24%, sweeper at 19%, four-seamer at 13% and cutter at 12%.
His 92.4 mph four-seamer and the rest of his mix play up, and his movement helps him generate an 80th percentile WHIFF rate. At home, he saves about 12 homers a season.
In the postseason, his only appearances came against the Dodgers in 2024, when he threw 7 2/3 shutout innings in a 4-0 Game 1 win and then seven innings of one-run ball in a 2-1 loss.
If Atlanta wants Webb, the price climbs even higher because he’s younger and has an extra year of control. A package for him would have to start with at least Elder, Ritchie, Caminiti and Conor Essenburg, and could also require one or two non-prospects.
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Jim Jarvis was back at shortstop, Dominic Smith was slotted into the middle of the order, and the Braves had a few bats with encouraging history against Cardinals starter Dustin May. Austin Riley was among the names carrying that track record, which gives Atlanta at least some reason to feel good about the matchup even with the pregame uncertainty hanging over the card. [Read more 🡒]
Braves Just Bet On Another High Upside Arm Fans Know Takes Patience
The Braves kept leaning into a familiar draft formula by taking another arm with real upside but plenty of development ahead. Their latest addition is a tall prep right-hander whose fastball already lives in the low 90s and whose slider gives him a pitch to build around, the kind of profile Atlanta has often been willing to wait on if the long-term ceiling is worth it.
What comes next is the part that usually matters most with this type of pick, because the path is rarely quick or linear. He is expected to start his pro career in the Florida Complex League, and for a club that has shown patience with young pitchers before, the bigger question is how much runway hell need before his stuff and command start pointing toward the middle-rotation future scouts think is in play. [Read more 🡒]