MLB free agency is only getting started, but the Braves already feel like a team with a plan. Alex Anthopoulos usually moves early, and with the lockout set to begin December 1st, there’s even more incentive for Atlanta to get busy before the calendar flips.
The early outside guesses all point in a similar direction: the Braves are expected to shop in the middle of the market, with pitching at the center of the conversation. MLB Trade Rumors’ annual free-agent rundown linked Atlanta to a few familiar names, and the common thread was clear - this is not shaping up to be a splashy spending spree.
Tyler Mahle is one of the pitchers that makes sense for Atlanta, and Sonny Gray keeps showing up in Braves speculation even though that pairing has never actually happened. Clay Holmes also came up, with the connection to pitching coach Jeremy Hefner from their time together with the Mets giving that idea some extra pull.
Mauricio Dubon was the one player all three MLB Trade Rumors writers had going to Atlanta, and that fits cleanly with the Braves’ roster needs. At the projected price, it looks like an easy fit. His defensive flexibility gives Atlanta options, too, since the club could still chase a shortstop upgrade by trade if the right opportunity comes along.
Raisel Iglesias is a different case. Only one of the three writers had him returning, and that makes sense given the price tag.
He’s projected to command $17 million, he’s getting up there in age, and he struggled to finish last season. The Braves already have Robert Suarez on the roster, so if Iglesias leaves, Atlanta would likely need another high-leverage reliever.
The Athletic’s Jim Bowden also tied four free agents to the Braves in his best-fit rankings, while ESPN’s David Schoenfield labeled Randy Arozarena a best fit as well. That one is easy to see on paper.
Left field has been a problem area for Atlanta since the 2021 season, and the team has cycled through a long list of attempts to fix it. Arozarena would be the first time the Braves really committed money to the spot. He’s expected to land around $100 million this winter after a career year that included nearly 6.0 WAR, 26 home runs and an .865 OPS.
There’s also the October factor. Arozarena has been huge in the postseason, putting up 12 home runs and a .946 OPS over 45 playoff games. For a Braves lineup that has had too many quiet nights in October, that kind of track record is hard to ignore.
Still, the age is the catch. Arozarena will be 32 next season and is likely looking at at least a four-year deal. That’s the sort of commitment Atlanta has usually been reluctant to make, especially for outfielders in that age range.
That hesitation is part of why it’s fair to wonder whether the Braves will actually go that direction, even if the fit is obvious. Anthopoulos has not shown much interest in changing his approach, so Arozarena and the other top outfield names may be long shots.
One prediction that does lean harder into the pitching side comes from SportsTalk ATL, which has the Braves signing Trevor Rogers, Mauricio Dubon and Michael Soroka. The projection has Rogers at four years and $100 million, Dubon at two years and $20 million, and Soroka at two years and $25 million.
That kind of rotation focus makes sense for a team with so many questions on the mound. Chris Sale could be in his final year in Atlanta, and the Braves need another arm capable of helping now while also giving them something stable beyond Sale.
Rogers is an especially interesting fit at roughly $25 million a year over four years. He’ll be 29 next season, and since the start of the 2025 campaign he has posted 7.5 WAR with a 3.16 ERA and 3.20 FIP.
Soroka would bring a different kind of appeal. His strikeout and walk numbers with the Diamondbacks this season were the best of his career, and he’ll also be 29 next season. At that price, it’s easy to see why a reunion would make sense.
Dubon rounds out that group, and he may be the cleanest fit of the three. He’s the best shortstop available on the open market by far, and his ability to move around the diamond means he wouldn’t block Atlanta from making a bigger move at the position. If the price really comes in at $20 million over two years, that looks like the kind of deal the Braves should jump on.
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