Tarik Skubal is the name hovering over the start of MLB free agency, and the buzz around the two-time Cy Young winner is already reaching well beyond the teams expected to chase him. The 29-year-old left-hander is the biggest prize on the market, and with the current CBA clock ticking, every Skubal rumor is getting picked apart.
For the Braves, the obvious fear is a division rival landing him. But the more interesting question is whether that would actually be the nightmare scenario some fans imagine.
Skubal is projected to command a deal north of $350 million, which immediately limits the field to the sport’s biggest spenders. The Dodgers, Mets, Yankees and Cubs are all viewed as the kinds of clubs with the money and appetite to make that kind of run.
On ESPN’s Baseball Tonight podcast, Jorge Castillo said the Mets are the favorite.
"I think they’re the favorites," Castillo said, naming the #Dodgers, #Cubs and Mets as the teams with "the need and frankly the money."
That would be enough to make Braves fans uneasy, but New York’s fit isn’t as clean as it looks on the surface. The Mets finished in the basement of the NL East last season, and one elite starter does not erase a 20-game gap by himself. Skubal would be a huge addition, no question, but he doesn’t solve everything.
The bigger issue for the Mets is the offense. New York ranked 21st in team wRC+ in 2026, which makes it pretty clear where the lineup needs help most. If Steve Cohen chooses to spend heavily on Skubal before fixing the bats, Atlanta probably won’t be losing sleep the way it did when the Mets went after Juan Soto.
From the Braves’ perspective, the more dangerous outcome might be Skubal ending up back with the Dodgers. Los Angeles already knocked Atlanta out of this year’s postseason, and adding a pitcher of Skubal’s caliber to that machine would be a much tougher pill to swallow.
Atlanta still has its own offseason business to handle, and it would be foolish to assume the Mets and Phillies will stay quiet. But the real question for the Braves isn’t just how much those teams spend.
It’s how they spend it. And if Skubal lands with the Mets instead of the Dodgers, that may be the version of this story Atlanta can live with a little easier.
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Braves Are Suddenly Tied To A Blockbuster Shortstop Swing
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For the Braves, the appeal is obvious, but so is the cost. Any serious pursuit would almost certainly mean paying a steep prospect price, the kind that would force Atlanta to weigh present-day certainty against the long-term value of its farm system. For now, it remains only a speculative link, but it is the sort of rumor that can quickly reshape how a winter is viewed if the market keeps moving in this direction. [Read more 🡒]