The Phillies are not exactly the cleanest draw for the Braves in a Wild Card series, but they may be the most manageable one on the board.
That’s not because Philadelphia is harmless. It’s because, by the numbers the source lays out, the Phillies are a strange mix: last among the possible first-round opponents in position player value at 26th overall, but first in pitching value at second overall.
Their combined fWAR, 35.7, also comes in below the Cubs’ position-player fWAR total of 37.8. The Padres sit about three wins ahead in fWAR, the Cubs are nine wins ahead, and the Diamondbacks finished about three wins behind.
The preferred matchup, at least in this telling, would have been Arizona.
The Braves did beat up on the Phillies during the regular season, but even that comes with a wrinkle. Atlanta was not a great team on paper either, sitting at +5.4 position player fWAR and -8.2 pitching fWAR, and much of the season-series edge came from timing as much as dominance. Seven of the 13 meetings happened when the Phillies were struggling and the Braves were rolling through the first two months of the year.
Then there’s the postseason baggage. In 2022, the Braves finished with 14 more in-the-standings wins than the Phillies and won the season series 11-8, only to lose the NLDS three games to one. In 2023, it happened again: Atlanta had 14 more in-the-standings wins and took the season series 8-5, but again fell in the NLDS, three games to one.
This year, the Braves finished with six more in-the-standings wins than the Phillies and went 9-4 against them in the season series. Still, the broader point is that a short series doesn’t really settle much, especially between two teams that are not all that different.
The frustration is more about perception than proof: if the Braves lose again, people will line up three separate postseason results and treat them like a single, unavoidable truth. And if Atlanta wins, it still won’t feel like much of a cleansing.
It’ll just be a coin-flip series against a team that keeps finding its way back onto the Braves’ October path.
In Other News...
Braves Catch A Break As Phillies Lose One Of Their Few Reliable Bats
The Braves at least know one thing about the Phillies heading into the Wild Card Series: Philadelphia will be without one of its more dependable bats. Luis Arraez is off the roster because of an ankle injury, a notable hit for a lineup that has needed every steady presence it could find, especially after his addition at the trade deadline gave the club a needed boost.
Don Mattingly also confirmed Jesus Luzardo will get the Game 1 start, though with a pitch count that is expected to be limited. Otto Kemp now steps in for Arraez, and for Atlanta the bigger takeaway is that a Phillies offense already searching for consistency has lost one of the few hitters it could count on, even before the first pitch of the series is thrown. [Read more 🡒]
Braves Still Face Two Crucial Roster Calls Before Phillies Series
The Braves are in the familiar spot of sorting through a postseason roster just before a high-stakes series with the Phillies, and the outline is taking shape even if a few decisions are still being treated as educated guesses. Behind the obvious core pieces like Drake Baldwin and Sean Murphy behind the plate, Matt Olson and Ozzie Albies in the infield, and Michael Harris II and Ronald Acua Jr. out in the grass, the staff is working through the kind of short-list construction that always matters in October.
What makes this one worth watching is how much depends on the final balance between position players and pitchers once the roster is set. The projection already points to a group built around current health, injuries and suspensions, but the Braves still have to settle a couple of important calls before the series begins, and those choices could shape how they match up with Philadelphia from the first inning on. [Read more 🡒]
Phillies Wild Card Decision Just Changed A Potential Braves Threat
The Phillies late-season push got a small but meaningful twist at the roster deadline, and it matters for the Braves because Philadelphias new infield piece will not be available for the NL Wild Card round. Luis Arraez, acquired at the 2026 trade deadline, had given the Phillies another bat to work with down the stretch, but an ankle injury suffered late in the season knocked him out of the opening series against Atlanta.
Otto Kemp has taken Arraezs spot on the roster, while Philadelphia is carrying three catchers as injuries have thinned out some of its other options. Arraezs postseason status is still unsettled beyond the first round, with a possible return if the Phillies get through to the NLDS, so the Braves know the matchup has already shifted once and could shift again if this series extends. [Read more 🡒]