Chris Sale gets the ball for the Atlanta Braves in what looks like it could be his final regular-season start for the club this year, and the matchup sets up with Andrew Abbott and the Cincinnati Reds on the other side.
Sale isn’t the favorite for the Cy Young, but his case is still very much alive in the voting conversation. He’s carrying a 2.18 ERA, a 30.3 percent strikeout rate, and a league-best 6.13 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
He also tops the NL with a home run rate of 0.5 per nine innings and owns the league’s best walk rate at 4.9 percent. On top of that, Sale has the best career strikeout-to-walk ratio of all time.
His 157.0 innings this season may be what keeps him from climbing all the way to the top in the award race, especially compared with pitchers like Jacob Misiorowski. There’s also a case that he’s moved ahead of Cristopher Sánchez, though Sánchez has piled up 200.0 innings, second in MLB behind Sandy Alcantara.
Atlanta had a brief scare with Ronald Acuña yesterday after he fouled a ball off his shin, but the tests came back negative. The Braves have already wrapped up the division, so yesterday’s loss to the Reds didn’t change that much in the standings.
What is slipping, though, is the chance at a playoff bye. The offense also went quiet again, which only adds to the concern as October gets closer.
The Braves don’t have much of a track record against Abbott. No Atlanta hitter has seen him more than five at-bats.
Ha-Seong Kim has homered in his four at-bats, and Ozzie Albies is hitting .600 against him. On the other hand, Michael Harris has managed just a .400 OPS in five at-bats, while Mauricio Dubón and Mike Yastrzemski are hitless in three at-bats apiece.
Austin Riley is also hitless in five at-bats.
With such a small sample, the better place to look is Abbott’s season line. His 4.70 ERA sits about eleven percent below average, and his 1.472 WHIP is the worst of his four-year career.
Walks have been a problem too, with 4.2 allowed per nine innings this season. That’s the opening Atlanta needs to press.
The Braves have had their own issues drawing walks, sitting at 7.7 percent, third-worst in MLB. They do strike out less than the average team this year, but the walk game still matters because it puts men on base and creates chances to score.
The Reds’ bullpen hasn’t been much help either, ranking in the bottom six in RP ERA this season. Atlanta has done damage against relievers all year, so the path is pretty clear on paper: work Abbott, force him into mistakes, and get to the bullpen. Sale should be able to keep the runs down, which makes this look like a game the Braves ought to control unless there’s significant rest for regulars, especially with Acuña likely being given time to let his leg heal.
First pitch is at 7:15 EDT.
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