The MLB Trade Deadline always lives in that awkward space where talent matters, but only up to a point. By late July, there just aren’t enough games left for a major upgrade to play out the way it would over a full season.
A three-WAR player is a real difference-maker, but at the deadline that kind of upgrade can end up translating to roughly one regular-season win. And the problem is obvious: players like that are rare, and they cost real assets.
This year’s deadline felt especially strange, at least from the vantage point of the deals that landed somewhere off-center - either too expensive or, more intriguingly, not expensive enough. The broader surplus-value framework still seems to hold up, especially with the update from Ben Clemens/FanGraphs, but this weekend still produced a lot of trades that felt out of line in both directions.
The overpays are easy to spot. Those are the deals where nobody’s really going to defend the price by saying they would have made the same move.
Even when the return is spread across several smaller pieces of value, it still looks odd when another team seems to have gotten talent for much less. The comparison between the deals for Freddy Peralta and Tyler Mahle is the kind of thing that sticks in the mind.
The more interesting question is the underpay. That’s where the conversation gets sharper, because it leaves you asking two things at once: why didn’t someone push the price higher, and why didn’t the Braves get involved?
The trade that keeps nagging at me is Jose Soriano. There are obvious reasons he doesn’t scream Braves target.
He’s already had two Tommy John surgeries, he leans on multiple fastballs, his sinker is his primary pitch, his main breaking ball has already been sped up a lot, and his ERA is lower than his peripherals. That last part matters, too.
He’s not a neat fit.
But he’s also an above-average arm with two more years of arbitration control, assuming no lockout affects the 2027 season, and he’s been durable for a while now. The team that ended up winning the bidding may not even get much out of the move this season.
Meanwhile, the return was Arjun Nimmala and Tate Southisene, both 50 FV up-the-middle prospects. Under the updated surplus-value math, the deal still works for the team giving up the prospects - even with prospects becoming more valuable in the new framework.
You’d have to believe Soriano is going to take a serious step back, or get hurt, for it to make sense not to move a 50 FV bat.
I haven’t gone through every single deal - and there were a lot of them, with more than 110 players moving - but Soriano is the one that stands out most to me from the “why not?” side.
In Other News...
Braves Nearly Landed A Frontline Ace Before This Trade Twist
Tarik Skubal was one of the biggest names sitting in the trade market before the MLB August 3 deadline, and the Braves were right in the middle of the chase. According to a report, Atlanta put together offers that included some of its top prospects in an effort to land the frontline left-hander, a clear sign the club was willing to pay up for impact pitching as the deadline approached.
The Tigers ultimately sent Skubal to the Dodgers, and Detroit president Scott Harris said Los Angeles had the best offer in a bidding war that drew multiple teams. For Atlanta, the sting is not just that it missed out on a coveted starter, but that its pursuit never got the kind of response that might have pushed talks any further. [Read more 🡒]
Braves Just Made A Telling Call On A Former MVP Bat
Andrew McCutchens brief stay in the Braves organization is over. Atlanta released the veteran outfielder from his minor league contract after he joined the club in July following his own release from the Texas Rangers, and his opportunities in Triple-A Gwinnett never really got much traction.
The move was part of a broader roster reset that also sent left-hander Austin Gomber and outfielder Ben Gamel out the door. For a Braves team constantly sorting through depth and looking for the right mix, the decisions underscore how quickly those fringe spots can change when the clock starts ticking on the stretch run. [Read more 🡒]
Braves Just Moved On From Three Familiar Veteran Names
The Braves trimmed their Triple-A roster this week by releasing three familiar veteran names, opening the door for Andrew McCutchen, Austin Gomber and Ben Gamel to become free agents and sign elsewhere. It is the sort of late-summer move that can get overlooked outside the farm system, but it speaks to how quickly Triple-A can turn into a holding pattern for experienced players trying to find one more path back to the majors.
McCutchens stop with the Braves was especially notable given his status as a former NL MVP, even if his time in the organization came only after he was released by the Rangers. Gomber and Gamel also brought plenty of big league mileage with them, yet all three had been searching for traction in the minors, and now Atlanta has moved on as they look for their next opportunity somewhere else. [Read more 🡒]