The Braves are riding a fresh jolt of momentum into tonight’s matchup with the Dodgers, and AJ Smith-Shawver is right at the center of it.
Atlanta’s dramatic win in the opener changed the feel of this series fast. Ozzie Albies delivered the go-ahead single in the eighth, then Raisel Iglesias finished it off after Shohei Ohtani opened the door with a leadoff triple. That result pushed the Braves to a 4.5-game lead in the division, a much more comfortable spot than the 2.5-game edge they held two days ago when things were trending the wrong way and the Phillies had won nine in a row.
Now the attention shifts to Smith-Shawver, who gets a chance to make a statement with the regular season moving toward its final month. His first two starts have been uneven at best.
He has not gotten beyond 4.1 innings in either outing, allowing two earned runs against the Mets and four against the Twins while battling command issues. A strong night against Los Angeles would go a long way toward showing he’s shaking off the rust and could be in the mix as a postseason option.
The sample size is tiny - just 8.2 innings this season - but the early numbers still tell a story. His 5.75 xERA isn’t much prettier than the surface results, and the underlying profile includes a 17.5 percent strikeout rate and a 12.5 percent walk rate.
One bright spot: he has kept hard contact down to 35.7 percent. His pitch mix has also shifted, with fastball usage down 5.0 percent from last year and more curves in the mix.
That may be part of the team easing him back in, though his fastball velocity still sits in the top 24.0 percent of MLB pitchers. For now, though, the numbers are too limited to draw any big conclusions.
Smith-Shawver has only seen two Dodgers hitters in his career. Alex Call has had the upper hand, going 2-for-5 with a .400 average and a 1.500 OPS. Backup catcher Ben Rortvedt is 0-for-2.
Los Angeles is expected to counter with Roki Sasaki, who has logged plenty of innings but hasn’t quite delivered the kind of season Dodgers fans may have hoped for. He has made 22 starts and thrown 116.0 innings, yet his 4.42 ERA is barely better than last season’s 4.46.
His strikeout and walk rates have improved from a year ago, but they still aren’t where you’d want them to be. Sasaki’s 23.1 percent strikeout rate is just two percent above average, while his 9.3 percent walk rate ranks in the bottom 39.0 percent of qualified pitchers.
The odd part is that his chase rate and whiff rate are both elite, but they haven’t translated into strikeouts at the same level.
The Braves have only seen five hitters from Sasaki’s side before, and none have more than three at-bats against him. Ozzie Albies has the best line, hitting .667 with a home run in three at-bats.
Austin Riley is 1-for-2 and comes in hot. Harris, Murphy, and Olson have all been held hitless.
With the bullpen getting plenty of work lately and Smith-Shawver not usually working deep into games, Atlanta could use early offense to create some breathing room. On paper, this looks like the Braves’ best shot to grab the series with the three starting pitchers they’re facing. First pitch is set for 7:15 EDT.
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