If the Braves are going to make noise in October, the rotation has to be lined up with a little imagination.
Atlanta has just a month left in the 2026 season, and while the division race is still alive, the bigger picture is pretty clear: FanGraphs gives the Braves a 95.5% shot at making the playoffs. That almost certainly means at least a three-game series at the end of September, and the starting staff is still the biggest question hanging over the team.
Alex Anthopoulos may not have done enough at the deadline to fully calm those concerns, but the one arm he did bring in has already looked like a bargain.
Chris Sale should be the easy call to open any series. He’s the Braves’ ace, one of the best pitchers in the majors, and there’s no reason to overthink it. The left-hander sits fifth in fWAR and third in ERA among qualified pitchers, which makes Game 1 pretty straightforward.
The real puzzle starts after that.
If Atlanta lands in the NL Wild Card Series, it will only need three starters. That puts a lot of pressure on the Game 2 choice, and trade deadline addition Tyler Mahle is quickly making that case.
Since arriving in Atlanta, Mahle has given up just four runs in 23.2 innings, which works out to a 1.52 ERA. His 3.00 FIP is almost twice as high as that ERA, but the strikeout-to-walk numbers still give the Braves plenty of reason to trust him in the second game of a series.
Game 3 is where things get tricky. The Braves would be choosing from Bryce Elder, Martín Pérez, Grant Holmes, and AJ Smith-Shawver, and the best move may be to pair two of them together.
Smith-Shawver has the loudest stuff in the group. He’s got a 96 MPH fastball and breaking pitches that can get chases.
The problem is that he hasn’t shown he can stay deep into games for long. Last season, he made it through six innings in only two of his nine starts.
This year, both of his starts have lasted just 4.1 innings.
That creates a different kind of matchup decision depending on the opponent. Right now, the Braves would most likely run into the DBacks or Padres, and neither lineup is especially heavy on lefties.
Against the Phillies or Cubs, though, things change. Those teams have several left-handed hitters near the top of the order, which could make Martín Pérez the opener in Game 3 before handing the ball to Smith-Shawver in the second or third inning.
If the opponent doesn’t feature that lefty-heavy top of the order, Atlanta’s best option may be to let Smith-Shawver start and keep the leash extremely short.
And if the Braves get through a three-game series - or earn the bye - they’ll need a fourth starter too. If Smith-Shawver is used alongside Pérez, Bryce Elder would likely fill that role. He’d also need a quick hook.
The Braves may not have the kind of clear-cut one-two punch some other playoff teams can throw at opponents, but with the right juggling act, they should still have enough to make a deep run.
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Braves Fans May See Ronald Acuna Jrs Dodgers Mistake Differently Now
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Braves Just Saw A Big Dodgers Pitching Question Emerge
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For Atlanta, the immediate concern is less about one night and more about what comes next for a Dodgers rotation that has leaned on Sasakis talent and upside. The next step is still uncertain, including whether the issue is serious enough to send him to the injured list, which would add another layer of intrigue to a pitching staff already under scrutiny. [Read more 🡒]